SPY gapped down in the morning. The Pelosi drama got a lot of attention, and honestly it was just a catalyst that the market needed to cool off the overbought technicals. We hit 407 and then started another bullish move to 413 once those technicals got worked out. Then 413 showed its level of resistance and back down we went to 408 at the close. Was an entertaining day.
HKD stole the show again today. This Chinese company at one point was the 8th largest company in the world by market cap. (Thanks to the discord for shouting this out).
Afterhours had ok earnings from AMD and great earnings for PYPL. Should be a fun day tomorrow.
What to Expect?
Premarket Earnings - UA, MRNA, CVS
No major economic data I was wrong OPEC+ meets
Afterhours Earnings - LCID, HOOD
Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
No major economic data
Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
Premarket Earnings - DKNG
Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week.
Current Positions and Plays:
I swung puts overnight and started off the day nice and green. Then got greedy and rode puts again as I thought QQQ was headed to 308. I got caught in a 4 point rally and Exited the puts at a nasty loss on the way down. Just terrible entries by me and it messed up my day.
Holding a SPX put going into Wednesday.
What Do I Think?
SPY Technicals - We are now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The drop we had, worked out the overbought technicals on the big 4 hour chart, however we are still pretty close to those conditions so we need a little more of a drop to avoid getting right back in that territory on the next move upward. Getting close on the daily chart as well.
SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We again saw selling pressure at 413 for the 3rd straight session. We got under 410 and are testing the 408 level now. I would love for us to get down to 404 to create a longer rally on the way back up.
WTF is Going On?
Jobs Data was this morning, what happened?
The Jobs opening number came in lower than expected. This is unfortunately just 50% of the data. We don't know if these jobs were taken down or if they were filled. We will know the answer on Friday.
We got another pullback, all good?
We did get a nice pullback but then the dip buyers came right in and pushed the 4 hour chart right back in overextended territory lol. the pullback at the end of the day was enough to get us out of the overbought conditions, but now we need a little more of a drop otherwise we get right back in there with the next pop.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:
Scenario 1: We gap up above 410. I think I will sit this out until it makes a clear move to either 413 or 408. I am leaning puts still so just need to make sure I get a good entry.
Scenario 2: We gap down below 405. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will jump in some calls.
Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see much like scenario 1.