SPY opened up flat and just chopped around all day. No trend day.
I am still holding my puts from Wednesday's overnight swing.
What to Expect?
Premarket Earnings - DKNG
Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. Did it get leaked?
Current Positions and Plays:
I did add some ARKK puts today for October. I am tailing a whale on this one.
What Do I Think?
SPY Technicals - We are still overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended.
SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 415 levels. They have been the support and resistance for the last few days. A solid break under 413 and we are testing 410. If we break above 415, then we are headed to 417 and then most likely 420.
If this is true, my puts are fucked. The Fed Pivot crowd will have the ammunition it needs to push SPY to 420. The wildcard here will be wage inflation in the report. If that is hot/elevated, then we have a bearish case that inflation is still a problem and no Fed Pivot can happen with inflation being hot.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:
Scenario 1: We gap up above 415. I will need to decide if I just take the loss on the puts right away or revert back to waiting on the technicals to cool. I will most likely take the loss, and grab calls if a trend is identified since this would be moving based on a fundamental event.
Scenario 2: We gap down below 413. I will see if a 413 retest happens and a rejection. If that is the case, then we are headed to 410 and I will ride my puts.
Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 1 points). This would be a situation where I would need to look at rolling my puts out a bit further.
Levels I am Watching
$SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels.