samosa 21:39 PM - Aug 09 2022

Wednesday, August 10th CPI Preview

We are going to do things a little different tonight and just focus on the big CPI data release on Wednesday morning in premarket. 

CPI Expectations: 

  • Headline CPI (Last Month's Figure): 9.1%.
  • Headline CPI Expectation (Year-Over-Year): 8.7%.
  • Core CPI (Last Month's Figure): 5.9%.
  • Core CPI Expectation (Year-Over-Year): 6.1%

What Do I Think?

  • Technicals matter but mainly the levels. With a big fundamental event like CPI, you can't rely as much on technicals. This could be a nice trend day. 


  • Scenario 1: Headline CPI is higher, and Core is at estimate or higher - Grab puts and ride SPY down to sub 400. Buy near the open and sell at the close. 
  • Scenario 2: Headline CPI is lower, and Core is lower - Grab calls and ride SPY up to over 420. Buy near the open and sell at the close. 
  • Scenario 3: Headline CPI is slightly lower, and Core is at estimate - No clear move here. I would wait for a possible move upward and look to play some more puts at a certain major level 413? 417? I am not sure, I will have to wait for the chart to show me the resistance. 
  • Scenario 4:  Headline CPI is at expectations, and Core is at estimate - Same move as scenario 3. 

The best case I can hope for is Scenario 1 or 2 as that will set a clear trend. So let's hope for that. 
Good luck and Happy Trading!

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Good luck tomorrow.  Looking for cool cool or hot hot. 💰
Maverick - 1 year ago
Thank you for posting expected and last month - very helpful.

Bones Tradez

Created By: Bones
Created: Mar 2, 2022
Total Followers: 27
Twitter: @BonesTradez
Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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