samosa 22:51 PM - May 31 2022

Wednesday, June 1st QQQ Preview

What happened? 
  • Just read yesterday's post in the "What Do I Think" section 🤪. 
  • But in all seriousness, we opened up with a nice move upward for just a few minutes and then the selling came in and dropped QQQ below 305.
  • Once QQQ established support at 305, it started a really nice bullish move for a few hours to 311. 
  • The Biden JPow meeting turned into a nothing burger with Biden saying he is staying out of the Fed's way. There was some fear that Biden could step in and force a more aggressive Fed, but this clearly was not the case. 
  • The market did cool off a bit into the close, but not enough to end this nice rally. QQQ closed well above 305 and SPY above 410. 

What to Expect?
  • Job data is at 10:00am EST
  • Bullard is talking at 1pm EST
  • Fed Beige Book release is at 2pm EST. 
  • QT starts, but it is not a major factor imo. $45 billion is nothing to the market in a month. For context, it would take the Fed 200 months to fully get back the amount of money they just put into the market if they stuck with $45 billion. Remember, just because it is a big number to you, doesn't mean it is a big number to the market. 

What Do I Think?
  • We are still following the March 18th trend upward so I am going to stick with this as a roadmap as long as no new data derails it. This week has no real major landmines from a data standpoint and the stage is set for this bear market rally to continue. 
  • I am looking at calls near the open, UNLESS we get some new data that surprises the market and turns is bearish. 
  • I expect a very strong green day tomorrow with a possible 5-7 point move on the $QQQ.

Levels I am Watching (same as yesterday)
  • $QQQ - for calls 305 > 309 > 311 > 315
  • $QQQ - for puts 300 > 297 > 293
  • $QQQ price target for a current rally is still 325
  • Reminder Note: This rally could take a few weeks and we have no real major data events on the economic calendar for 2 weeks. 


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Comments

Maverick - 1 year ago
I'm bullish, but not as much as you.  I think Wednesday is a grind sideways with Thursday being the big move.

China relaxing its restrictions on Wednesday could prove a big catalyst though.  It will make headlines.
Maverick - 1 year ago
Outstanding call for Tuesday that you made last night. 👏

Nailed it.

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