samosa 21:43 PM - Jun 26 2022

Monday, June 27th Market Preview

Current Positions:
  • Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

What happened? 
  • Futures gapped up above the 380 level on no major news. It opened up at 381 and never looked back. 
  • At 10am the market exploded up on the UofM consumer data and a revision of new home sales which saw a huge uptick from the expectations. 
  • My only thought is that the data was leaked as to why the futures exploded. 
  • The VIX broke at 10am and we rocketed up to 387 and just stopped for a few hours. Then the end of the day saw another burst upward and we closed at the high of the day at 390. We filled a 10 point gap in 1 trading session. Unreal. 

What to Expect?
  • There are some major landmines this week on the calendar. But nothing until Wednesday morning. 
  • Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am. 
  • Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)

What Do I Think?
  • Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. Still neutral on the 4hour and Daily charts. 
  • Technicals - We cheated in futures on Friday morning and skipped a few levels. I expect us to at least retest 385. 
  • We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. This should get filled as long as the economic data this week does not come in too hot. 

  • If we retest 385 on Monday, I will grab calls as I think we retest 390 again and ultimately head to 400. 
  • I am not seeing much of a reason to play puts here unless we just knife right through 383. That would signal a 380 test is coming, so a quick scalp could be had. 
  • However, I will be looking at calls at 385, and if the market keep diving, I will double up at 380. 
  • If we break under 380 soundly, then I know any play on calls is risky. 
  • As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

Levels I am Watching
  • $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 385 > 387 > 390 > 397 > 400
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samosa - 1 year ago
I forgot one note here for a scenario where we continue upward without a pullback. I will just stay on the sidelines and will wait for any pullback under 390 and see how that level holds it. 

Bones Tradez

Created By: Bones
Created: Mar 2, 2022
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Twitter: @BonesTradez
Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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