Current Positions and Plays:
- I scalped a SPY put position for a nice gain after the CCI data came out below expectations. I sold too soon, but was happy to get a nice win.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
- The market opened up green and tested 392. Once the CCI data was released, we started seeing selling come in and it just didn't stop.
- We ran right through 385, which was surprising to me. And then all the way down to under 381 at the close.
What to Expect?
- Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am.
- Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are almost oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. Still neutral on the 4hour and Daily charts.
- Technicals - We are now testing the 380 level which is a major Weekly Fib Level.
- We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. It is all about the upcoming economic data as to whether this gap gets filled.
- I was bullish at 385, but the market just knifed right through it so fast that I had no choice but to sit back and see if any buyers showed up. They did not...
- I do think some data got leaked that triggered this sell off. Below are scenarios I am looking for:
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Scenario 1: If the GDP revision data comes in at expectations. This could trigger a bounce as the sell off today was too severe given the GDP data.
- Scenario 2: If the GDP revision comes in worse than expectations. This could trigger a little more sell off and probably gets us to 375 which is a recent Fib Level for the most recent trend.
- Scenario 3: If the GDP revision data comes in above expectations. This should trigger a nice bounce and could get us back to 390 in a hurry. However, be cautious playing this bounce beyond Wednesday. Something triggered the sell off today, and if the GDP was not leaked, then the PCE data could have been...
- I do not think JPow's talk will have much of an impact.
- I will not be holding anything overnight on Wednesday due to the PCE inflation data releases happening in premarket the next day.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 385 > 388 > 390
- SPY 3 Year Weekly Chart below with Fib Levels.