Current Positions and Plays:
- I had swung a SPX put for a nice gain, and am now back to holding another position overnight. This time it is calls.
- Holding SPX 3770 call for 07/11
- PCE came in right at expectations with the Core coming below it. That was a pretty favorable reading all things considering.
- The PCE spending did go down for the first time since December and I believe this is what led to the initial sell off at the open.
- SPY dropped to 373 and started to catch some bids down there. It then went on an absolute tear all the way back to 380. It tested 380 a few more times but ultimately got rejected.
- This was the end of the quarter so there were a lot of wild swings happening in the final minutes.
What to Expect?
- PMI numbers in the morning, but nothing major at all heading into the holiday weekend.
- There are no major economic data releases until the Jobs data next Wednesday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - Neutral on all the major timeframes. 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- With no pending economic data due for a week, it is back to playing the technicals and levels.
- I am in calls, and honestly I have this absurd level of confidence in them. I do not see much in the way of a low volume steady uptick movement with the holiday weekend approaching.I am keeping an eye on the following items:
- If the DXY gets above 105, exit any calls and scalp very short term put plays.
- If the QQQ breaks under 275, exit the calls and sit on the sidelines.
- If the VIX breaks above 30 and holds it, exit calls.
- If any of these 3 scenarios present themselves, then my calls are toast. But until then, I have no reason to sell them until the next data release. If this turns into a bear market rally, my target is 400.
- I don't see much opportunity for puts at these levels, but if some unforeseen event presents itself, then I will adjust and switch to puts.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 363 > 368 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 385