samosa 22:26 PM - Jun 30 2022

Friday, July 1st Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays:
  • I had swung a SPX put for a nice gain, and am now back to holding another position overnight. This time it is calls. 
  • Holding SPX 3770 call for 07/11

What happened? 
  • PCE came in right at expectations with the Core coming below it. That was a pretty favorable reading all things considering. 
  • The PCE spending did go down for the first time since December and I believe this is what led to the initial sell off at the open. 
  • SPY dropped to 373 and started to catch some bids down there. It then went on an absolute tear all the way back to 380. It tested 380 a few more times but ultimately got rejected. 
  • This was the end of the quarter so there were a lot of wild swings happening in the final minutes. 

What to Expect?
  • PMI numbers in the morning, but nothing major at all heading into the holiday weekend. 
  • There are no major economic data releases until the Jobs data next Wednesday. 

What Do I Think?
  • SPY Technicals - Neutral on all the major timeframes. 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts. 
  • SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch. 

  • With no pending economic data due for a week, it is back to playing the technicals and levels. 
  • I am in calls, and honestly I have this absurd level of confidence in them. I do not see much in the way of a low volume steady uptick movement with the holiday weekend approaching.I am keeping an eye on the following items:
  • If the DXY gets above 105, exit any calls and scalp very short term put plays. 
  • If the QQQ breaks under 275, exit the calls and sit on the sidelines.
  • If the VIX breaks above 30 and holds it, exit calls.
  • If any of these 3 scenarios present themselves, then my calls are toast. But until then, I have no reason to sell them until the next data release. If this turns into a bear market rally, my target is 400.
  • I don't see much opportunity for puts at these levels, but if some unforeseen event presents itself, then I will adjust and switch to puts. 
  • As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

Levels I am Watching
  • $SPY - levels 363 > 368 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 385
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Bones Tradez

Created By: Bones
Created: Mar 2, 2022
Total Followers: 27
Twitter: @BonesTradez
Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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