Current Positions and Plays:
- I swung SPX calls and sold at the pop at the open. I then scalped some more calls after the FOMC minutes.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
- The market opened up slightly green and ran right into the 383 level and got smacked back down.
- The jobs opening data came in flat. No real change there meant that we were going to be choppy heading into the FOMC minutes at 2pm.
- The FOMC minutes were released and it confirmed the hawkish tone that the Fed had shown in the last minute. So again, no real new information in it so the market rocketed up to 385 shortly after the release.
- The close saw a drop back to the 383 level when the 30 min chart hit overbought on the RSI, which was the early resistance for the day. Looks like it has now turned into support.
What to Expect?
- With the Job Openings and FOMC minutes out of the way, we now just have the Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are neutral on all the major charts.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. As long as we stay above this level, bulls are safe.
- SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 383.28. Next one is 389.81
- The last few times we have had a nice upward move from any Fed news, the next day has seen heavy selling. That is the main reason I am all cash now. No reason to guess on the direction.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- I will look at a 383.28 (Fib level) retest. I am still bullish, but I will be extra cautious moving forward now since we have hit my original 385 target. I got my eye on the RSI and will bail on my bullish views if the 30 min chart starts getting in the overbought territory again.
- It is all about the levels for me. 380 is a big level, if that breaks, we can look at puts possibly to the 373 level again.
- A 385 break and I will look at calls until 390 (another Fib Level).
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 390