samosa 22:55 PM - Jul 13 2022

Thursday, July 14th Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays:
  • I scalped SPX calls for a nice profit and then gave it all back in one trade at the end of the day.
  • Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

What happened? 
  • CPI came in hot on the topline number with 9.1%. The Core came in at 5.9% and the market dropped 10 points in one 5 min candle at the time of the release. 
  • The market opened up around 375 and then ripped up to 381 in the day. It was a running of the bulls in the face of bad data. 

What to Expect?
  • TSMC Stock has earnings at 2:00am EST
  • PPI Data is set to release at 8:30am EST
  • Keep an eye on the DXY and how it moves over 108. 

What Do I Think?
  • SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
  • SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. We closed below 380 and that is a bearish signal. 
  • SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 373.
  • It is back to the levels game for now. The CPI data came in hot but we are still getting peak inflation narratives getting thrown around. It had some sticking power, but it is a weak argument with the Core number coming in near last month's reading. 

  • Scenario 1: We gap down and test 373, I am buying calls at that level and playing a bounce off that important level. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap down and just break through 373. Then it is puts until 363. 
  • Scenario 3: We never reach 373 and just chop around. This is a sit back and wait until 373 or 380 are tested. 
  • As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

Levels I am Watching
  • $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 389 > 393
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I forgot about TSMC ER - thanks!

I think we're in the chop box tomorrow.

I'm riding with you on 373 if that shows its pretty face.

Bones Tradez

Created By: Bones
Created: Mar 2, 2022
Total Followers: 27
Twitter: @BonesTradez
Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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