samosa 23:04 PM - Jul 17 2022

Monday, July 18th Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays:
  • I grabbed calls on QQQ at the open and rode it all day to finally get green at the end of the day. I did a shitty entry and was down like 8% all day but was handsomely rewarded with a 2% profit in the last minute of the trading day. 
  • Holding QQQ calls for 290 for 07/27

What happened? 
  • Market gapped up which as a nice kick in the scrotum for me not buying calls on the 373 SPY level on Thursday. 
  • Retail Data came in above expectations which sparked the move upward. 
  • UoM data at 10am brought bullish momentum and kept us in a range all day. 
  • OpEx (pronounced "O-Pex" or "Ah-Pex" let me know which one in the comments. ) gave us volatility in the very last few minutes of the day and had us closing at day highs. It was frankly bad ass.

What to Expect?
  • Earnings: BAC, GS, SCHW all reporting in the morning. So we will have a lot of movement on the financial sector. 
  • Earnings: INTC reports afterhours. 
  • There is no major US Economic Data this week. 
  • Chips Bill is set to get voted on in the Senate on Tuesday. This is an obvious tech catalyst. 
  • International Events are hot this week so we need to keep an eye on these as it will impact the DXY. 
    • Tuesday - EU CPI data, UK Bank Chair Speaks
    • Wednesday - UK CPI and PPI data, GER PPI data, CA CPI data
  • Keep an eye on the DXY and see if it stays under 108. 

What Do I Think?
  • QQQ Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour are close to overbought. 4 hour and daily charts are still new.
  • QQQ Technicals - 291.92 level is a major Weekly Fib Level and we closed right at it. 
  • QQQ Technicals - It is all about that Fib level above. If we can hold that level, the next resistance is at 297.
  • Last preview, I introduced a new section. I am going to keep he section and expand on it and update it as the market proves to F me in A. 

WTF is Going On?
  • What is the big landmine this week?
    • We do have the CHIPS Bill as a catalyst on Tuesday. It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY will explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So stay on your toes and don't be too biased. 
  • Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week? 
    • As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member. 
  • Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
    • The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June. 
  • Why is tech moving like nothing is wrong?
    • Tech is the one sector that has been hit the hardest by this bear market. So a lot of names are attractive at these prices, and this is the one sector that is still managing pretty good earnings reports. The best answer I can come up with is simply, there are no major landmines for the next few sessions. So you can actually be safe in tech until next Wednesday when TSLA reports afterhours. So if you are looking to park some money in a sector that can move upward in the very short term, this looks to be the one. 

  • Scenario 1: We gap up above 292, I will sell my calls and lock in profit. If we re-test 292, I will re-enter the calls on any bounce off of it. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap down and break under 292. That would force me to hold the calls all day, and hope for a bullish rotation into tech. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) I will hold my calls and wait and see if the chips bill on Tuesday can carry tech upward. 
  • I am only interested in puts if we break 287, or if we roar up and test 297.

Levels I am Watching
  • $QQQ - levels 280 > 285 > 287 > 290 > 293 > 297 > Valhalla
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I completely missed the Chips Bill in Senate.  Good note.
Maverick - 1 year ago
Neither, you clown.  "OP-EX" just like it's spelled and what it stands for OPtions EXpiration.

Unless you're now calling OPtions, OH-ptions.

Bones Tradez

Created By: Bones
Created: Mar 2, 2022
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Twitter: @BonesTradez
Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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