What Happened? - 

• On Tuesday, we opened slightly down and the market broke under 427 for a brief moment. Then recovered to set another high in this trend to 431.80. And then it dropped rapidly 3 points. It ran right into the 200 SMA before it reversed. 

What to Expect on Wednesday?

• UK Inflation Data at 2:00am EST
• EU GDP data at 5:00am EST
• Retail economic data at 8:30am EST
• FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST
• TGT has earnings in premarket.

Current Positions and Plays:

• I have some SPX puts for Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These are red at the moment, and I rolled the August ones into the September ones. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
• 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over. 

• QQQ Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
• QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: Retail Data is strong (stronger economy), we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out hawkish with no neutral rate talk, then I expect a sharp move downward possibly to 420.
• Scenario 2: Retail data is weaker, we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out dovish and hint at a pause in hikes, the market is going to run to 440.
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431 > 433
• $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338