samosa 22:05 PM - Aug 22 2022

Tuesday, August 23rd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We gapped down again on Monday to open around 417. The selling did not stop and we tested sub 413 and closed at 413.35. 
  • We honored really no levels on the way down, and it broke a few levels a little too easily imo.  

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page!
  • Tuesday - International PMI data in premarket and US New Home Sales at 10am
  • Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - NVDA Earnings afterhours
  • Thursday - GDP Growth Rate at 8:30am
  • Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am 
  • It is all about Friday. Those two items have an opportunity to spark a rally. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I was expecting a retest of 420 today and we never got it. I fumbled away the biggest day gain I have had in 2 years by selling my SPX puts Friday at the close. I did close out my QQQ puts today for a 30% win. I am now holding a few SPX calls as I am looking for a Turnaround Tuesday.  

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally. 
  • SPY never retested 420 today, which is kind of surprising. I will look for a 416 level break on the next move up. If we start weak again on Tuesday, looking for a 410 test and then a bounce.  

  • QQQ Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.  
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday. 


  • Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and not enter any new positions. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and will enter puts to swing until Thursday. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can reclaim 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416. 
  • NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Paper hands...

Bones Tradez

Created By: Bones
Created: Mar 2, 2022
Total Followers: 27
Twitter: @BonesTradez
Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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