Tuesday, August 23rd Market Preview
What Happened? -
- We gapped down again on Monday to open around 417. The selling did not stop and we tested sub 413 and closed at 413.35.
- We honored really no levels on the way down, and it broke a few levels a little too easily imo.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Tuesday - International PMI data in premarket and US New Home Sales at 10am
- Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
- Wednesday - NVDA Earnings afterhours
- Thursday - GDP Growth Rate at 8:30am
- Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
- Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am
- It is all about Friday. Those two items have an opportunity to spark a rally.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I was expecting a retest of 420 today and we never got it. I fumbled away the biggest day gain I have had in 2 years by selling my SPX puts Friday at the close. I did close out my QQQ puts today for a 30% win. I am now holding a few SPX calls as I am looking for a Turnaround Tuesday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.
- SPY never retested 420 today, which is kind of surprising. I will look for a 416 level break on the next move up. If we start weak again on Tuesday, looking for a 410 test and then a bounce.
- QQQ Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and not enter any new positions.
- Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and will enter puts to swing until Thursday.
- Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can reclaim 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416.
- NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Bones Tradez
Created By: | Bones |
Created: | Mar 2, 2022 |
Total Followers: | 27 |
Twitter: | @BonesTradez |
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Options Trader - Not Financial Advise