samosa 07:06 AM - Aug 24 2022

Wednesday, August 24th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We opened Tuesday flat, and it was mostly a choppy day. There was one pop near the open to 415, but the sellers came in batted it back down to 412. 
  • QQQ continues to slide down. DXY and oil are on the move up. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page!
  • Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - NVDA Earnings afterhours
  • Thursday - GDP Growth Rate at 8:30am
  • Thursday - TSLA's 3 to 1 stock split goes into effect
  • Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am 
  • It is all about Friday. Those two items have an opportunity to spark a rally. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I had an opportunity to get out of my calls on the morning pop, and decided to hold out for the 416 test. It never came and back down we went. I am looking at 412 as support. If that breaks, I will just take the L on the calls and wait until Thursday to load up my strangle play for Friday.  

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart. We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.   

  • QQQ Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart. We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.  
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday. 


  • Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and not enter any new positions. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and will enter puts to swing until Thursday. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can reclaim 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416. 
  • My confidence level on the 3 scenarios above is low, so the best approach is not trade until Friday. There is no real A+ setup presenting itself for a swing entry right now. 
  • NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Bones Tradez

Created By: Bones
Created: Mar 2, 2022
Total Followers: 27
Twitter: @BonesTradez
Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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