What Happened? - 

• We had a nice green start to the day. The key for me was to watch NVDA and see if it could recover from its drop from its earnings report. It did recover and the market gave a big hint as to what the daily trend would be.
• SPY hit 417.50 in the morning and then retested the 415 level before ripping up after 1pm. It was nonstop buying and push SPY all the way to 419.51 at the close.  
• Friday is the main event, and I think we got a little hint as to what is coming. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
• Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
• Friday - Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am
• Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am 

Current Positions and Plays:

• With the bullish move, I was able to get out of my SPX calls with little to no damage. That was a HUGE win for me after being underwater all week on them. 
• I am holding a straddle play now for SPX. 

What Do I Think?

• Note 2 Fundamental events tomorrow will make the technicals less important, so keep that in mind with the overbought conditions. 
• SPY Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
• 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.   

• QQQ Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
• QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
• QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• It is showtime. PCE and JPow... So we need to break up this day in 2 parts. 
• Part 1 - PCE Data at 8:30am
  • Scenario 1: PCE Core and Topline come in under the previous months (cold reading). We should see a move upward at the open and break the 420 or 422 wall before JPow. 
  • Scenario 2: PCE Core and Topline come in above the expectations (hot reading). This should send us back to 415 by the open. 
  • Scenario 3: PCE Core and Topline come in muted or mixed (one hot, one cold). We open up flat and await JPow to move the markets.

• Part 2 - JPow's speech
  • Scenario 1: PCE Data is cold and JPow "talks" hawkish but provides no new details on his tightening plan. SPY will rocket up to over 425 
  • Scenario 2: PCE Data is hot and JPow comes in with a hawkish tone AND provides new aggressive details on his tightening plan. SPY will crater to test a possible 410 support. 
  • Scenario 3: PCE Data is muted and JPow comes in with a wait and see approach. I think this will be a bullish move, but it will not create an impulsive move upward. This would be the worst case scenario for my straddle as we will chop and stay rather flat. 

• Here is hoping that Scenarios 1 or 2 happen for Part 1 and Part 2. Otherwise my straddle is toast. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
• $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338