We had a small gap down and basically chopped around from 401.50 to 405 all day. We opened at 402.20 and closed at 402.60. So no trend could be identified today. Are we headed lower, or are we going to bounce? This probably won't be answered until Friday's Job data, so temper expectations on any major moves before hand.
Wednesday - EU Inflation Data at 5am (DXY implications)
Thursday - No major events to me
Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event
Current Positions and Plays:
I sold my SPX put for a nice profit and scalped some puts for a few more gains to add to the day. Then... I gave it all up by grabbing calls near 404.50 after I realized the Brainard speech had nothing to do with the market. This started awesome, and then we sold off at the end of the day and it took all my daily gains.
What Do I Think?
SPY Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral.
SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
SPY is approaching the key 400 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down eventually.
If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test to 410.
QQQ Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral.
QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
QQQ is approaching the key 300 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that level
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:
Scenario 1: I am looking at a 400 test and waiting to see what the reaction will be there. We got near it today and the buyers stepped in at 401.50 but couldn't keep the chart above the 404 level. So I am looking to see if we can get a sustainable bounce off that level to 407. Otherwise it looks like chop all week.
Scenario 2: We break under 400 and 396. Then we consolidate. If this happens, the chart could flush down on hot jobs data on Friday.
It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week.
NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.