Wednesday - EU Inflation Data at 5am (DXY implications)
Wednesday - ADP Jobs Info at 8:15am EST
Thursday - No major events to me
Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event
Current Positions and Plays:
I sold my SPX calls for a nasty loss, but switched over to puts on the 10am data release and got myself a nice green day.
What Do I Think?
SPY Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral.
SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 390 is the .236.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.
SPY broke the 400 level and we got bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down IF the jobs data is hot on Friday.
If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test to 410 if Jobs data is cool on Friday.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:
Scenario 1: I am looking at the ADP data and seeing if it can't give a hint at the jobs data on Friday. ADP jobs have been revised on how they calculate their data so how accurate is it and does the market care? I am not looking at trading at all, and will just study the chart to make my play for Friday ironclad.
It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week.
NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.