Market Update: April 12, 2022 - SPY to 433 after relief rally; AFRM, CTRA, LAC on watch
What Happened Today (Tuesday)
- SPY was almost perfectly opposite of what I called last night - drop at the open, and run at the close. Instead we got pop at the open (premarket) and drop most of the day. However, I’ll give myself a little credit for recognizing I had it backwards once CPI data was released - and that’s how I traded it. Puts from the open, on. 🔥
- Trade: SPY/QQQ - puts only, right until the last few minutes. I didn’t stay in my couple trades very long, should have. I really do need to learn to stay in longer with the golden tickets that I know are right. $SPY $QQQ for trades.
- ⚠️QQQ gave up 343 support today, SPY gave up 438, but clawed it back right at the end. Both important levels for the bulls & bears.
- Trade: $LAC - exited this right at the open on the $1 pop. I had averaged down quite a bit and that ended up working out. Exited at 4 (from 3.88), which ended up being fortunate timing, because it closed at 2.80. I’ll be back in this one when the chart looks better.
- Trade: $CTRA 25c 5/20 @ 4.25 - These were real good to me on Friday. I think we're got a rotation into commodities in progress, so I jumped back in. It was a bit too early by the looks of it. It pulled back all day long. We'll see how this one shakes out. There's plenty of time on the expiry, but I have no interest in using it. 😅
Looking Ahead (Wednesday)
- We’ve got PPI (Producer Price Index) at 0830 EST. This will have some impact, but it’s not CPI.
- I’ve got my CTRA calls, but not expecting them to move too much on Wednesday. If they’ll just hold the line, I’m happy hold them over the weekend. Unlikely to happen, but I can try.
- SPY/QQQ - I switched over and did one call just before the close for 12% on SPY. It was a small position, but the turned looked clear. This should continue into Wednesday.
- JPM does have its ER in premarket. It could move DIA/XLF if it surprises. I’ll have AFRM ready to go, if so.
- SPY/QQQ - I say relief rally in the morning… +4-5 points? It may hold it all day and just chop, but if it doesn’t come pullback by EOD, then I am expecting Thursday or Monday at the latest to pullback. It looks clear to drop to 433 on SPY and 333 on QQQ.
- I expect we’ll see those numbers within 2-3 trading days. On shortened weeks and lighter volumes as you get closer to holidays, it’s always a bit more volatile.
- Watchlist: AFRM (if JPM surprises), CTRA (my commodities play), AMD (quick bounce only), LAC (looking for 28 bottom)
Market Update: March 30, 2022 - Strong SPY Close to End Quarter?
From Wednesday's update:
“SPY - I am looking at puts on Wednesday. We’re at an interesting cross roads here. There’s CPE data on Thursday morning, which also happens to be March 31, the end of the quarter. There could be a coutner-balance of selling the CPE data and funds painting the tape.
If SPY doesn’t crack on Thursday, I think it pulls back a lot on Friday at the latest. I’ll have puts for sure on Thursday afternoon if it runs into the close.
SPY chart is very overbought in 30m and approaching that zone on the daily - it’s going to pullback, I don’t care how optimistic retail is right now. See above for the charts.”
What Happened Today (Wednesday)
- $SPY was indeed a slow slide all day from 461 to 456 - right up until 3:30pm EST - then it clawed back almost 3 points in 30 min to close at 458.70. I did OK, should have done better since it was on my bingo card.
- AAPL - that green streak ended…finally.
- $LAC - I caught it at 34, sold at 35 - I had no reason, just put in a limit order. It ran to almost 39! one we’ve been talking about here for weeks. it went heavily into overbought zone, but this one is normally pretty quick to pullback and resume. keep an eye out for just that.
- $SOL ran to 125 on me. Sold yesterday at 113. Damnit. It’s my favorite crypto for sure.
- Russia/Ukraine - I didn't see any major changes here, except some US skepticism (correct, IMO)
- $MOS - I exited with a small loss today, really just to de-risk and let it work out those technicals a bit more. The Ukraine/Russia situation is a gamble either way on narrative right now (I don’t think Putin is actually pulling out). I’m going to let it play out, then ride the wave. No reason in being silly with options in this market. I’ll push the date out as well. 4/14 right around corner now.
Looking Ahead (Thursday)
- As is typical for Thursdays - this is the day. Core PCE data comes out at 8:30am EST. If anything is going to move the market this week, it’s this. I have no open positions, so I’m just going to see how it plays out. Most likely? It’ll just be ignored and off we go. 🤷
- We either got a preview of the pullback today - or it started today. We’ll see tomorrow.
- I’ve got no specific stocks on my watchlist for Thursday right now. They've all gone nuts at this point and need to cool off.
- I’m looking at SPY calls after 12pm EST if the market starts turning up going into the close - I’m expecting a strong close for end of month & quarter - huge capital inflows to the market.
- Then I’ll be looking to swap them out for SPY puts right at the close if we get a strong green close - I’ll be expecting a pullback on Friday / Monday that’s due.
- Several "if" caveats….
Market Update: March 22, 2022
Monday-Friday: We've got Fed Presidents speaking all over the place. Just look at calendar and expect one of them to go off script and the news to pick it up with a fun headline. JPow on Monday and Wednesday.
- That happened! JPow came in with quite a hawkish tone at his 12pm conference today - cnbc.com/2022/03/21/powell-say...
- I wasn't expecting that kind of tone from him, but as I said...somebody was going to go off script this week - and it's only Monday. He took a tougher line on inflation than his FOMC speech, mentioned 0.50% hikes as possible (needed, in my opinion), and the market was caught off guard.
- The QQQ went from 351 to 346 in minutes - tech will get punished the most by rate hikes. SPY went 446 to 440.
- In no surprise to anybody, the QQQ/SPY recovered almost all of it by end of day. Bulls are running right now...
- Trade: Speaking of which, my overnight hold on $QQQ puts went poorly. I sold the initial pop in the morning (high of day) just before it jumped off a cliff. Ah well. Puts are always my toughest plays. I'm a calls guy at heart. Which makes it tough with my bearish stance at the moment!
- Trade: I cleaned up on $AMD calls intraday, though. It's a powder keg. I couldn't resist holding some overnight, as well, headed into the NVDA Investor Day tomorrow. I'll be out before the event, though, because these things are normally sell the news events, regardless of what magic they unveil.
- Trade: Added some $LAC to hold long-term (we'll see how long that actually is) at 30.17. Big fan of this one. Coming off that 24 bottom which I've been staring at for days.
- Trade: I exited $IPI disgustingly early at 14.25 (from 13). It went to 26 by end of day, just didn't stop moving up. It had no exposure to Canada, so it was 'the' fertilizer play.
- Ukraine/Russia - I didn't see any improvements here. Same situation, though I'm sure we'll hear about more 'talks' this week. I think the market is losing interest on this topic - for now.
Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
- We've got three Fed presidents talking at various times on Tuesday. No JPow.
- I'm primarily focused on AMD tomorrow. The NVDA event is at 10am PST (1pm EST). I will be out well before that. I also need to check on when they actually release information for the event. Before? During?
- I'll be sitting back and waiting for a pullback on $MOS and $IPI - both are in overbought territory now - but there's an overriding, major fundamental event in progress. So I might be waiting for a while. I'll do it, though. When the technicals kick in, it's fierce.
- Chart: That JPow dip worked out some overbought conditions. While it didn't feel like it, we did close red today on both SPY/QQQ. That was needed. I think we see more consolidation on Tuesday with a bend towards upside, especially on QQQ.
- We are right at the 200 on the SPY -- 446. Once that breaks, we're going right to 450.
Lithium Americas Corp - LAC
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