From Wednesday's update:

• “SPY - I am looking at puts on Wednesday.  We’re at an interesting cross roads here.  There’s CPE data on Thursday morning, which also happens to be March 31, the end of the quarter.  There could be a coutner-balance of selling the CPE data and funds painting the tape.

• If SPY doesn’t crack on Thursday, I think it pulls back a lot on Friday at the latest.  I’ll have puts for sure on Thursday afternoon if it runs into the close.

• SPY chart is very overbought in 30m and approaching that zone on the daily - it’s going to pullback, I don’t care how optimistic retail is right now.  See above for the charts.”

• $SPY  was indeed a slow slide all day from 461 to 456 - right up until 3:30pm EST - then it clawed back almost 3 points in 30 min to close at 458.70.  I did OK, should have done better since it was on my bingo card.
• AAPL - that green streak ended…finally.
• $LAC  - I caught it at 34, sold at 35 - I had no reason, just put in a limit order.  It ran to almost 39!  one we’ve been talking about here for weeks.   it went heavily into overbought zone, but this one is normally pretty quick to pullback and resume.  keep an eye out for just that.
• $SOL  ran to 125 on me.  Sold yesterday at 113.  Damnit.  It’s my favorite crypto for sure.
• Russia/Ukraine - I didn't see any major changes here, except some US skepticism (correct, IMO)
• $MOS  - I exited with a small loss today, really just to de-risk and let it work out those technicals a bit more.  The Ukraine/Russia situation is a gamble either way on narrative right now (I don’t think Putin is actually pulling out).  I’m going to let it play out, then ride the wave.  No reason in being silly with options in this market.  I’ll push the date out as well.  4/14 right around corner now.

• As is typical for Thursdays - this is the day.  Core PCE data comes out at 8:30am EST.  If anything is going to move the market this week, it’s this.  I have no open positions, so I’m just going to see how it plays out.  Most likely?  It’ll just be ignored and off we go. 🤷
• We either got a preview of the pullback today - or it started today.  We’ll see tomorrow.
• I’ve got no specific stocks on my watchlist for Thursday right now.  They've all gone nuts at this point and need to cool off.
• I’m looking at SPY calls after 12pm EST if the market starts turning up going into the close - I’m expecting a strong close for end of month & quarter - huge capital inflows to the market.
• Then I’ll be looking to swap them out for SPY puts right at the close if we get a strong green close - I’ll be expecting a pullback on Friday / Monday that’s due.
• Several "if" caveats….

What Happened Today (Tuesday)

• SPY closed +5.64 today, QQQ +6.28
• TRADE: $SPY  puts @ open for a tidy profit, SPY calls in afternoon for a few bucks.
• AFRM - damn, I really blew this one.  It was in weekend charts as prime play, I stared at it Monday, then I stared at it Tuesday.  It put on another +11% today.  Bravo!
• AMD roared +3 today, I didn’t trade it.  Powder keg lid came off as expected last few days.  Well done, AMD.
• AAPL just won’t stop.  I stand in admiration. We’re only about 6 points from an all time high here…
• Russia/Ukraine unexpectedly (to me) reported progress that Russia would “significantly reduce” troops in Kyiv.  This excited the market quite a lot - and while I hope it’s true - I’m not buying it right now.  They’re still firing there…
• This caused my $MOS  trade to get absolutely wrecked at the open (-55%).  I didn’t close it or average down because I had plenty (unfortunately), but MOS came back very strong to close at 64.45 after dipping all the way to 59.  I’m flat around 67.75.
• More Fed hawks were out giving warnings today about May.  Even Bullard showed up off the top rope today.

• Ukraine/Russia will hold more talks on Wednesday in Turkey.  I’ve no idea what to expect here, but I think we’ll get some clarification in the negative direction as far as troops.  I really don’t think it was what everybody thought it was. I expect to see some positive notes, but to hear that the troops were repositioned to new areas, not sent home.
• If that happens, commodities (and MOS) will resume their run that was interrupted today.
• ADP unemployment report on Wednesday at 8:15am, but I don’t know what this is worth anymore
• More Fed Presidents at 9;15am and 1pm
• SPY - I am looking at puts on Wednesday.  We’re at an interesting cross roads here.  There’s CPE data on Thursday morning, which also happens to be March 31, the end of the quarter.  There could be a counter-balance of selling the CPE data and funds painting the tape.
• If SPY doesn’t crack on Thursday, I think it pulls back a lot on Friday at the latest.  I’ll have puts for sure on Thursday afternoon if it runs into the close and the overbought conditions remain.
• SPY chart is very overbought on 30m and approaching that zone on the daily - it’s going to pullback, I don’t care how optimistic retail is right now.  See above for the charts.

What Happened Today (Monday)

• SPY closed at 456, up a little over 3 points for the day.  It’s truly a work of art. 👌  
• As I noted on Friday, the 20MA is curling up - https://stonks.chat/group/7/posts/290 - very bullish indicator.  
• The weekend update noted that 458 is our next stop and that looks on the agenda for Tuesday stonks.chat/group/7/posts/296
• Trade: flipped AMD for a decent profit.  Unfortunately I bought it right before the 4 point drop on the SPY, so had to average down.  Worked out OK in the end, but AMD wasn’t quite moving at the pace of the SPY.  Something is still sitting on it.  See $AMD  for trades.
• Trade: SPY 450c I traded a few times.  This worked out as well, as you can imagine. See $SPY  for trades.
• I did not buy it, but AFRM is showing strength and I like it here.  It was from weekend charting. https://stonks.chat/group/7/posts/295
• Trade: I can’t help myself with MOS.  It dipped $5, so I went in after it started turning up.  See $MOS  for trades.
• Russian involved in peace keeping talks may have been poisoned https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-oligarch-roman-abramovich-ukraine-peacekeepers-suspected-poisoning
• China has started locking down millions of people in its zero tolerance policy, but I don’t think this will last long.  They do not want to go into an economic stalemate again.
• No progress in Russia/Ukraine event.

• Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10am EST.  This is a measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about their financial situation.  Unless it’s a shocker (doubtful), won’t move market.
• Fed Harper speaks at 10:45am
• AFRM - on watch for entry.  I should have went in today.
• AMD - my flavor of the week.  I’ll trade it up until SPY 458.
• AKAM - another one from charts over weekend, slow ticking up https://stonks.chat/group/7/posts/295
• PAY ATTENTION: I’ve been warning about the market ignoring rate hikes, what could happen in May, and bond market - the bond market is yelling at us and at some point, the stock market will listen. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/bond-market-is-flashing-a-warning-sign-that-a-recession-may-be-coming.html
• 10Y Treasury is at 2.5% now….it was 1.5% on Jan 1. 🚨
• Chart - SPY - it’s just chugging as expected so far.  I think we’ll see 458 on Tuesday and then run into some headwinds.  If it pulls back, it might be a significant one - but I don’t really see anything significant enough to pull it back until Thursday’s PCE data.  More likely to hit 458 and cruise until then.

From yesterday's update:

We're right here at a major line in the sand -- 450.  It went right to it and then stopped.  
I note one issue here -- the volume has been declining for several days -- which can prelude a pullback coming very soon or some sideways movement (which would be a change!).

• SPY 450 was - not surprisingly - too much to get over on this run.  It's been a hell of a run for a week though - respect.
• Commodities were flavor of the day with oil pushing to 116 again
• Trade: exited $MOS yet again for a tidy profit.  Went right back in mid-day.  It had a very strong open, a reasonable dip, and then a nice run with a  volume spike end of day to 68.50.  It lost 0.75 of that in the final few minutes, but that is pretty normal for MOS.
• Trade: I knocked around a bit of QQQ and AMD, but nothing worth noting.  Paid for a pizza.
• AAPL & TSLA did an incredible job of holding QQQ/SPY up pretty much all day. It was trying to drill in the morning, but AAPL just wasn't having it.
• I hope everybody is paying attention - all these Fed Doves are turning quite Hawkish quite quickly.  The pain is coming in May. 🐻

• We've got the normal slate of Thursday 0830 EST data coming out - nothing market moving there.
• There are two more Fed Presidents speaking tomorrow - one at 0830 EST and the other at 1100 EST - expect more hawkish shifts.
• They are screaming at us - we better listen to the tone shift.  Less than 60 days of party time left.
• SPY volume increased on Wednesday, but it was on sell side.  It wasn't significant, so I'm not going to say it will have much impact either way.  More consolidation is needed after this impressive run.
• LAC - 34 is a wall - looking for it to pull back and re-enter.  I'd like to get in below 30.  Wishful thinking.
• AMD - I don't know what is sitting on top of this one, but it's still being contained.  It tried to get going at one point this morning when it broke 117, but tech ran out of steam.  Still on watch. Powder keg.
• MOS - I'm in this one, so looking for my normal post-open exit.  It's just barely in overbought territory.  A pullback is coming, but outlook still strong here.  Looking for 70 by EOW and 100 within 60 days.
• SPY - it'll be on watch for a buy at 435 from me.  Right now, just not seeing an easy trade here, looks sideways to down.
• As I said yesterday, there's more opportunity in individual stocks than the indexes.  Even in tech, there's some really interesting stuff - particularly in the internet security group. I do need some more for my watchlist.  Tomorrow...
• Note: Biden is in Europe right now.  Expect news on more sanctions and increased NATO presence there.

From yesterday's update:

We are right at the 200 on the SPY -- 446.  Once that breaks, we're going right to 450.

• We nailed the SPY from yesterday's market update.  That was satisfying.  It went right to 450 and just stopped. ✅
• Trade: Flipped AMD 110c 4/1's several times - that paid for dinner. 🥩
• I trade it, but I told @Linus that NVDA puts were the move just before the event - it would have been a quick 30% on the 270's I had my eye on.  Oh well, was fun to watch.  It was a typical sell the news event -- it had roared upwards into it, so it was prime.  It would have been much stronger sell off had the QQQ not been so strong today.
• Trade: I nibbled on some $MOS because it's quickly moved out of insanely overbought territory into consolidation.  There's an overriding fundamental event ongoing with fertilizer so it can run hot on technicals for a while as I've seen.  

• JPow is speaking at 0800 EST on "digital challenges" which I assume to be cryptocurrency.  I don't expect this to move the market, but it'll probably whip Bitcoin around a bit.
• Two more Fed Presidents speaking at 10am and 11:45am on economy - probably more trickles of hawkish tone.
• Trade: I'll be eyeing $MOS yet again to add to my initial nibble on Tuesday - if it manages to consolidate in this 65+ area - that'll be incredibly strong.  It'll be a tough pill to swallow on price, but it has a lot going for it.  70+ EOW looks possible.
• Chart: SPY/QQQ has dazzled me the last 6 trading sessions.  I haven't traded them well at all, but it's been fun to watch.  We're right here at a major line in the sand -- 450.  It went right to it and then stopped.  It reminds me of that video where the girl holds her hand up to a running ostrich and it just stops dead in its tracks. 😆
• SPY - if we capture 451/452, I'm going to be very tempted to jump in, because it'll have a pretty clear run to 458.  I note one issue here -- the volume has been declining for several days -- which can prelude a pullbackcoming very soon or some sideways movement (which would be a change!).
• I'm not really jonesing to jump in SPY/QQQ here on calls, but I equally see no clear reason to go on the put side.
• Better trades to be found on individual story stocks with events - just like NVDA was for a few days.  Anybody have any of those on their watchlist?  Maybe even NIO ahead of Thursday (earnings). Don't overtrade.  Don't overtrade.  Don't overtrade.

We nailed it yesterday's looking ahead: stonks.chat/group/7/posts/225

Looking at tonight's chart, I think we're headed to 440 before this slows down.  

• SPY showed more strength -- it held the 300MA and recaptured the 250MA today.  It was the Dow in the morning, but Tech showed up to the part and they both contributed equally to the day in the end.
• Russia carried on doing its strikes and intensifying them.  I didn't see any progress on this front for Ukraine, unfortunately. 
• Canada Pacific Railway might strike - reuters.com/business/canada-us... - this probably caused some of the spike in MOS today.  Canada is a major supplier to the world of fertilzier.
• In the end SPY was up +5.50 (+1.25%) - impressive.  That's a 25 point rally off the 416 bottom on TUESDAY. 🤯
• TRADE: I flipped some SPY around, but I didn't stick to my plan laid out last night, so minimal profit.  I exited $MOS nicely at 6.10 (from 4.94 overnight).  I had a quick AMD flip for 10% because it tempted too much being down almost 5% when everything else was solidly green.

• There's no market moving economic events on the calendar for Friday.
• I regret not buying SPY puts at the close.  We hit 440 as expected - and even went a bit farther to 441 at the close.  It's now in overbought territory and I expect it to come back down.  I had no interest in holding calls overnight, but the close was so damn strong, it scared me off the puts.
• There's nothing else I'm interested in right now.  Tech needs to cool off for a few days.  AMD could be interesting if it gets out of its slump, despite that broader QQQ does.  I'll be eyeing that.  I'm leaving MOS alone on Friday/weekend.
• Expect some volatility & volume on Friday -- it's a significant options expiration day.
• Chart [above]:  SPY is in overbought territory.  JPow did a magical job, but despite his soothing words, he was hawkish and will be bringing small bits of pain every couple months.  We're still in a bear market and that will continue.  If the SPY opens anywhere near 440+, I'll be buying puts for 4/1.  It should pull back several points and consolidate to cool off from this run.

A view of the market for the week ahead.  Daily updates are posted each day after the close.

Earnings: twitter.com/eWhispers/status/1...

• I don't see anything on Earnings calendar that's interesting except some companies I didn't even realize were public (GitLab, SmartSheet) and FedEx reporting on Friday after the close

• On Tuesday, the PPI is likely to cause a 1-2 point move on the SPY at 0830 EST
• It's all about Wednesday, though.  That's JPow day.  The FOMC minutes will be released at 1400 EST and JPow will hold a news conference at 1430 EST.
• The market is expecting a 0.25% interest rate hike.  If it comes in as expected, we'll probably do a small move up.  If it comes in with 0 rate hike, it will rally pretty strongly.  If it comes in 0.50% or higher, it's going to knock the market down pretty hard.
• Besides the rate itself, keep an eye out on two other items: the planned frequency of hikes and any direction on balance sheet reduction
• Both of these watch items could swing the event as well, especially if they take an aggressive stance on the balance sheet (I don't think they will in light of current events, more kicking the can down the road).
• I doubt I'll trade ahead of this, but will ride the wave, whichever way it goes, after JPow starts talking.

• As noted above, the event of the week is obviously the FOMC moves on Wednesday.
• I know that Ukraine has tweeted out today that they have talks scheduled on Monday, but while I hope they reach a resolution very soon, it looks unlikely to me.  I watched some documentaries on Putin this weekend and I just don't see him backing down on this until he gets what he wants (or is stopped by a bigger adversary). His ideology is just flat different from what the West thinks is right.
• Russia is getting very close to hitting NATO ground.  I sure hope it doesn't, but it's inching ever closer to what we don't want to happen.
• Grim: I saw this list of mostly tech stocks showing % change from their 52 week high: i.redd.it/n6ufsiqp11n81.jpg
• It just goes to show you how much the SPY/QQQ are held up by a very small handful of mega-mega caps
• TRADE: I am still keep an eye on $MOS but I am adding another fertilizer play to the watchlist that I'm late on: $IPI -- it does fertilizer inputs so it's one step earlier in the process.  It's US based and it's moving quite quickly for obvious reasons (84.19 right now).
• I am almost entirely cash at the moment.  I need to do a bit more scanning the market instead of playing the same old few (MOS, SPY, QQQ).  That said, if you look at the image I posted, I might be doing so bad keeping it boring for now.
• Futures are currently up just a little as I write this: +0.32 (or +1.3 on SPY)
• I remain bearish on the general market and think we've still got a ways to go down.  I'm keeping an eye out for another bear market rally and going to try not to miss the one. 🤦

• Looking just at the SPY, we're slowly trodding toward oversold technicals again - but we're not there yet.  I want to see it go way oversold again before I go in.
• I still see nothing to be positive about.  Ukraine/Russia remains (I hate to keep repeating myself) the driving market factor + Wednesday's FOMC.  Calling it on a Sunday, I'd say we overall continue the slide down Mon/Tues - slowly.  Wednesday...we'll see when we get there.
• I'll probably play the QQQ on my next trade - it's been quite good to me and I'm starting to get used to how it moves and grooves.  I prefer tech anyways, as I understand it better and it doesn't have the counterbalance of the Dow/Oil stuff of the SPY.  So as long as you're right on QQQ, you're very right.

• CPI data was the headline event today.  It dropped at 0830 and was basically "as expected" at 7.9%.  That's hot, folks.  I don't care what analysts expected.  They're going to have to tame this beast.  It'll be close to 9% on the March reading, I bet.
• Since it was "expected", the SPY spiked a couple points after it was released - then gave it all back to open around 422 (lowest point in premarket).
• Then we spend the rest of the day on a roller coaster ride that was a bit tamer, but still 6 point range.
• Unfortunately, Ukraine/Russia talks made no progress.  Russia appears to be intensifying its attack.  Not looking good at all.
• TRADE: I exited my full $MOS position profitably today - after a nasty turn against me (I was down 50% two days ago).  I kept averaging down and came out OK in the end.  Learned some lessons there.  Today was a good day. 🚀
• TRADE: I held some QQQ puts overnight, exited them at the open.  It was pure gambling and I shouldn't have done it, despite the small win.
• TRADE: Right before the close I picked up some $MOS 60c 4/14 @ 6.53.  I plan be out of these on Friday.  Much smaller size.  It was just too strong end of day to pass up one more ride.

• There's nothing market-moving on the economic calendar for Friday.
• I think Friday's going to be a quiet one (famous last words) - low volume, and low volatility.  This market looks exhausted.  Maybe that's just me.
• 10Y treasury has made a big move this week - from 1.7 to over 2.00.  The VIX, however, has moved down quickly from 37 to 30.  So they're counter balancing each other and probably has some connection to the SPY being a roller coaster every day.
• Chart: Technicals on SPY are middle of the road, no clear direction.  More roller coaster until it finds its footing?  I'm staying bearish here, I think the rally is probably over for now.  A bummer I missed it - will be watching close for the next one.  I don't see anything to be bullish about.
• I'm going to stay primarily cash until charts speak to me or another MOS floats across my screen.  Try not to overtrade.  It's one of my weaknesses that I'm working on.
• Next week: I think it's likely that next week commodities start ticking up again after the breather they took; JPow/FOMC on deck.  I'll post more over weekend once I do some homework.

SPY 30m, Daily

• Remember that technical bounce I was talking about on Monday night? stonks.chat/group/7/posts/204
• It kicked off on Tuesday, then got rejected by end of day.  As a surprise to me, it picked up today where it left off.  I thought the rejection on Tuesday afternoon put a cap on it for now -- but there was more of that spark that lit it up -- hope/positive sentiment out of Ukraine about a resolution (at least deal terms are being put out there some).  So here we are.
• TRADE: I still didn't think it was really happening and played QQQ puts at the open - had quick/small gain and that was it for the day.  Didn't play any calls, just accepted I missed my own damn technical rally.
• TRADE: I was having mixed thoughts about $MOS due to the price action and improving sentiment out of Ukraine, but I decided to buy the dip anyways.  I'm way oversized here and not pleased about that.  My average on the 55c April 14's is now 8.05 (down from 10.40) with my lowest buy being 4.50 today. 🤡 We had an impressive rally off the 53 (ooof!) bottom today to close near 58.  I think around 61, I'll break even.
• The last time we had a CPI report, the market rallied hard the day before, as well.
• LAC continued its run today -- should keep going with resource plays.
• AMZN announced a 20:1 split out of nowhere - spiked the stock 10% at one point in after hours and pulled the QQQ up a full 2 points.

• We've got the news of the week tomorrow at 0830 EST -- CPI Data -- a key measure of inflation (at least for the Fed).
• Last time it came in "as expected" at 7.8% and the SPY started off down about 6 points....then rallied all the way to green....only to have Fed Bullard knock it back down completely by talking about interest rate hikes and balance sheet.  SPY ended down about 8 points that day, in the end.  It was a wild ride.
• Does the same thing happen tomorrow?  I don't see how we don't come in flaming hot on the topline number (YoY - my guess is 8.0%), but I can't make any sense out of how the market responded last time initially.  It's pretty well assumed that it's going to be a 0.25% rate hike now, so that's mostly off the table for discussion, I think.  If we do get a repeat of last time, this bear market rally is over with and we're pushing below 420 on our way to 400.
• If the reading comes in cooler/improved, the rally will intensify.  So this is a gamble, which is why you saw de-risking at the close today.
• After that's out of the way in the first couple hours, then we're back to Ukraine news driving the market.
• I'm expecting MOS to have worked out is technically way, way overbought conditions with the big drop to 53 (and being down last two days) and start grinding up again -- today's afternoon action supported that.
• CHART: I just see a chart on a knife's edge.  It's moving big on Thursday and will set the technicals after that.  I've got nothing to predict here beyond what I've already said.  I'm bearish, for what it's worth. Good luck!

• I had talked about a technical bounce in my update last night.  We definitely bounced hard (+12 off the bottom today), but I think it wasn't the full bounce we're going to get.   We were so oversold technically that, as I said, any positive spark was going to set it off.  That happened with some slightly positive news from Ukraine situation where Ukraine said they'd agree to not join NATO.  This was right behind Biden saying he was banning Russian oil in the US.
• Then it got knocked all the way back down by the end of the day.  I'm going to use a 5min chart below, just you can see the full roller coaster experience that happened today.
• Trade: I fumbled my own trade.  I bought QQQ 320c 3/18 calls shortly after the open because I thought the bounce was on like donkey kong.  Then it pulled back on me and I ditched them thinking I was wrong - almost at the bottom.  Then I chased it back up and squeezed some juice out in the end. I was down a hell of a lot on my initial screwup, but I clawed it all back and then some by end of day.  Not my finest trading, but it was a real bucking bronco out there today and I know I wasn't the only one who got knocked around.
• My $MOS position took a wild ride today, too.  It dipped at the open, down to 57, roared all the way up to 62.50 where I was nicely green.  Then the positive news out of Ukraine came out and it spent rest of the day getting knocked down and consolidating.  I don't think the trade is over. I'll talk more about that below.

• There's no expected economic news on Wednesday that will move the market, as I noted on Sunday.
• Ukraine/Russia will continue to be the market mover.  There's a significant event happening with opening the humanitarian corridors tomorrow.  If that goes well (second or third attempt now?), it may bode well for further negotiations.
• $MOS price action was unfortunate today, but it's been wildly overbought technically for a couple days now.  The fact it was even near 60 today is quite strong.  I don't think the trade is over - yet - unless there's big improvements in Ukraine negotiations this week.  I suspect we're in for a few days of consolidation and news watching.    The 30m chart has it back into not-insane technical zone.  The daily chart, which will update tonight, should reflect same.  So...consolidation for another power move up.
• LAC (long-term) made a nice move upwards today.  It's a resources + green play and those will remain hot.
• Chart: Looking at the 30M chart, we got a nice technical bounce today that was rejected by end of day.  Technicals aren't as favorable as they were at the start of Tuesday.  I don't see an obvious trade here right now.  If it pulls down below 413 again, it may push down pretty hard and I'll be waiting down there for another oversold condition to brew.  I think SPY 400 is inevitable.  We've also got some market-moving data on Thursday - careful holding into that, could go either way.

SPY 30m, Daily

SPY 5m  🎢 (note the range...)

• Nothing of interest until Thursday when get the all-important CPI from the BLS drops at 0830 EST
• It's probably going to be hottest reading since...70's?  Amazingly, I think the market may actually be happy with anything under 8%.  That would be...expected.
• FOMC will make its decision next week and it will include the CPI data, but JPow has already projected out it's going to be 0.25%.  Though we really need 0.5%...

•  🥱

• Still the dominating market factor -- there's been no major progress in Ukraine over the weekend that I could see.  My original prediction was it'd be over in days (completely wrong) - now we're looking at months?
• The Ukrainians are withstanding, mostly due to sheer tenacity and fighter spirit, but NATO is providing a fair share of intel and equipment, which is certainly helping out.
• Looking at futures, we've got yet another big spike in....all commodities.   investing.com/commodities/real...
• Wheat continuing its push higher (due to how much comes from Ukraine/Russia).  Oil, we know the story - it hit 130 at one point tonight.  I've never traded commodities (except oil) and seems mid-game to be doing that now, but I was poking around at some Commodities ETFs - etfdb.com/etfs/commodity
• I thought this was an interesting opinion piece about Putin's endgame at CNN - cnn.com/2022/03/06/opinions/be...
• Trade: Most of my trades last week were $MOS -- it's had quite a run, but if you look at the chart back in 2008 - this could be just the start.  I've got no open position right now, but I'm sure I'll be giving it another go this week.  I really think anything tied to commodities is the only thing you should be trading right now.  It's got the tailwinds behind it.  Just pick one or two and stick to that, don't try to trade the hottest thing of the day....
• US Futures were down about 2% when I looked at them earlier.  As I'm writing this, US500 is down less than 1%.  Will I be surprised to see us go green by open?  Not at all.  
• Chart: The Dow part of the SPY is what will drag us green on Monday, if anything.  The SPY's MACD and RSI are still in nowhere land with no clear direction.  You're playing with fire to be betting on any side here.  It's going to consolidate and then move violently one way or the other this week - a dangerous place for options traders.  The only thing driving the market until Thursday will be the war/invasion, so as I've been saying for weeks now, don't hold SPY overnight - anything can happen while the market is closed.
• Tech looks pretty bearish this week.  I expect QQQ to go much lower before it goes higher - it's going into serious headwinds, in my opinion - interest rate hike next week, probably peak earnings for most, risk-off environment....
• Looking like MOS, DIA and maybe another commodity-focused ETF for me this week, after I pick one out. Corn, anybody?

• Data: It's sure looking like we've arrived at one could call 'max employment' - no?  ISM showed increasing prices, but not increasing units.  As I said previously (and agree with Maverick), we're likely at peak earnings and seeing most of the 'gains' in inflation -- but that curve is going to bend the other way very soon.
• Russian attacks are intensifying, as expected, unfortunately.  He has no choice unless he's going to back out of this thing (we can hope).
• The big news tonight was that Russian soldiers were attacking a nuclear power plant.  I think the news played into fears pretty hard and it smacked the SPY down by almost 10 points in the final hour of afterhours.  It looked like an overreaction by the market (to be fair, though, there was very limited information and very little time left on the clock), but it also shows you how ridiculous these attacks are (why would you even consider attacking a nuclear power plant???)
• After the close, it came to light that the situation was under control and there was no threat of radiation.  It looked like some risky reporting and opinions being made with little information in the middle of the Ukrainian night....but I digress..
• JPow reiterated his slow approach on the rate hikes. His speech didn't give me much confidence, he's still fumbling around in his explanations.  It's like he doesn't agree or like what he's doing...
• Trade: I picked up some more $MOS calls today.  50c April 14 @ 8.00 average.

• Futures have already cut that dip in half since Ukraine confirmed the nuclear plant situation was under control - good news.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that entirely clawed back.  Before the news came out, we were almost green for Thursday.
• Data: We've got the BLS payrolls on Friday premarket.  It'll shift the market a little, but Ukraine still the dominating event, especially after Thursday night's events.
• Trade: I've got nothing on the watchlist. MOS is only one I'm willing to hold over the weekend (even though we're in very overbought technical zone - but the fundamental events going on will override that for now)  I might do a scalp on SPY if I see an opportunity at the open, then pack it up for the weekend.  Stay nimble...
• Chart: Consolidation continues.  Slow tick slightly down?  RSI and MACD both still right down the middle, no clear direction.  We're just sitting on idle until there's a closer resolution on Russia/Ukraine conflict.

• ADP report premarket revised the January report that caused so much confusion from -300k to +500k.  Say what?  Then showed +475k for Feb.  So, was the BLS report right, after all?  I don't know what to believe with these jobs reports anymore - and the market is caring less, as well.
• I was also caught off guard by JPow.  He had his testimony before the House today - and he all but said he'll be doing a 0.25% rate hike.  The market liked that, especially since many were expecting 0.50% hike.  
• Ukraine: We got some hope that a ceasefire is on the table.
• Trade: I closed out my overnight $MOS  calls at 4.75 (from 4.45)
• Trade: I closed out my $SPY  calls at 14.50 (from 13.48) - sadly these went on to 17.50.  Grr!
• Trade: I did some more research on $MOS and decided it was worth a swing trade (hold for a few days) and added back the March 18 50c and some April 14 50c - see $MOS for those trades.  Remember, this is the fertilizer play (on tightening supply due to world events)
• Trade: I also (poorly) traded AMD.  It was an obvious one this morning just screaming at me, I took the quick scalp, but should have held it way longer.  It roared most of the day.  This is my favorite tech company to trade.
• We ended up +8 points today on the SPY and closed just over the 250MA - nice rally, mostly on the back of JPow's comments this morning.

• I don't see any economic data on the calendar that matters in premarket.  We've got JPow again at 10am, but this time in front of Senate.  I am guessing he's just going to mostly repeat himself?  The only landmine I can think of is if they push him on the balance sheet.
• Trade: I might pick up some more $MOS if it continues to inch up.  Liking this one.  They're the largest in this space in the US, have plenty of cash, pay a dividend, and announced accelerated buyback - and are now in a spot where their product has tight supply.
• Trade: I'll have my eye on $AMD again.   If the general market is moving higher, this should outpace it to the upside.
• Chart: 30 minute chart approaching overbought on the RSI only.  MACD looks fine.  Daily chart says we could keep moving up, pending any extreme news or balance sheet landmines from Senate.

• I was expecting a small move upward today - and got that at the open, but then it spent the rest of the day giving it up and being choppy.
• I thought it was interesting that there was a 10 point range, but it didn't feel like it at all.  The size of the 5 minute candles seem much larger than normal (the moves were bigger and faster than normal)
• We stayed almost perfectly between the 250 and 300MA ( see daily chart below), so consolidation
• No major news on the Ukraine front today that I saw, I think Putin is just building up his forces for a overwhelming siege on attempt #2
• Trade: I picked up some $MOS 50c 3/18 for 4.50 today - getting a little greedy here dipping my hand back in the cookie jar, but intend to be done by end of week with this one.
• Trade: I flipped calls and puts all around on SPY but came out flat end of day.  It was choppy and I knew better.

• There's quite a bit on the economic agenda for tomorrow - stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
• Most of which will be out by market open, then JPow at 10am
• I don't think the private jobs number will move the market, however it comes out.  The BLS one on Friday is normally the market mover.
• We'll probably get some market moving words (at least a couple of points) out of JPow tomorrow at the hearing.  Inflation, inflation, inflation.
• I listened to some of the SOTU address tonight from Biden, but could only tolerate so much of it (not a fan of politics).  I see no market impact from that.
• I do think that Putin is going to be making a big move this week.  He almost has no choice.  The world is mounting against him and I really think his internal folks and oligarchs have been caught off guard by the extreme sanctions and collapsing in value of all things Russia in just days.  They can't be happy.  He's going to need to get in there and do it - or get out.
• We've had three days right inside the 250 & 300MA and I wouldn't be surprised to see that carry on for Wednesday as long as nothing too crazy comes out premarket to rattle everybody.
• Trade: I've got some March 31 430c SPY that I didn't want to hold overnight, but I was flat on them and wanted to feel alive.  I've got time if it goes against me in the morning, but I'd really like to be out at the open on a few point pop.
• Trade: Yeah, looking at the charts again tonight - just more consolidation.  RSI and MACD are in nowhere land, just hanging out, no clear direction.  Don't overtrade (talking to myself here), wait for clear direction.

SPY 30M, Daily

• After the futures opened on Sunday, we saw the SPY go as low as 426/427 ... only to open cutting that loss in half.   It then pushed down at 10am, rallied to 438 at 11:30, back down to 431 at 2pm (day lows), then rallied hard in final hour to almost 438 (almost turning green for the day - amazing strength)
• I didn't catch too much new on the fighting front today, it sounded like it's mostly a Russian convoy buildup going on right now for phase 2, unfortunately -- cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukrai...
• Russian economy has been shattered, for now, with sanctions --- the Russian Ruble was down about 30% vs USD, Central Bank raised its rate by 100% from 10 to 20% (trying to stabilize economy + it's fighting inflation, too), they kept the stock market shut down today
• Bitcoin caught some wind from all this because Russia banned forex transfers aboard, which is exactly what Bitcoin is designed to help with
• Trade: I exited $MOS  options at 4.30 (from 3.05) - see thread for trades.  This one still looks good and is likely a good hold for a while, actually.

• Today was an extension of the bear market rally that started on Thursday and I think it will continue into Tuesday.  
• The 10Y being down, VIX being down is only good for stocks right now.  
• There's no real bearish indicators at the moment - though Wednesday could quickly change that and we'll be running into overbought by then, most likely.
• For Tuesday, there's not much to mention on the economic calendar, so the news will continue to driven by Russia/Ukraine activities.
• The market appears to be more focused on the Fed narrative at the moment - which is scaling back - for now - from the more hawkish 0.50% rate increase that was being priced in.  The market is looking for a 0.25% most likely - with only 2 weeks left on the calendar.
• I think we need (economy-wise) at 0.50% bump, but 0.25% is most likely what will happen - they really need to do at least something.
• Trade: I lean bullish for Tuesday, so maybe I'll trade some calls intraday - but still won't hold anything overnight.

SPY Daily, 30M