Last Week Recap -&nbsp;

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Existing Home Sales @ 1000
Wednesday: FOMC @ 2pm, Q&A @ 2:30pm - obviously, even of the week/quarter ⚠️
Thursday: Jobless Claims @ 0830, New Home Sales @ 1000
Friday: Core Durable Goods @ 0830, FOMC Bullards @ 0930, PMI @ 0945 (plenty going on near the open)
NEXT Week: PCE

Last week: What didn’t happen last week? I got popped on my M-W profits on Thursday due to bad risk management (no stop, which was my final warning point in my Sunday Week Ahead last week 🤦).
My overall sentiment is bearish - still. The banks cracking are part of my bearish thesis, but I didn’t see the Fed coming in and rescuing it so quickly. That was….fast.
Thursday said a lot. Money always flows somewhere. If the banks/SPY are failing, then it’s QQQ, Gold, Crypto. QQQ had its biggest gain of the year on Thursday.
I had a theory that may have played out to add fuel to that fire: If you’re worried about your cash at the bank not being insured (>250k), then where can you move it to? Stocks, gold, crypto. Is this what we saw on Thursday?
Crypto is really having a moment right now - as it should - it was designed for a moment like this.
The entire gush into QQQ does all seem like a final hurrah by retail. I think you can see most institutions are basically short on the market - or at least risk-off. Retail is just piling in though.
Fed has come in and backstopped all depositors 100% - this is historic. This is not bullish - but just the start of problems. Which is why they went so extreme.
I’m pretty unclear on what the trade is here - so I’m going to be playing it light. I’ve actually gone back to options because the Futures are so, so volatile at the moment - especially during market hours. Your stops have to be too wide for comfort right now, candles are just too big.
It sure looks like the Fed has said “nothing is going to fail, we’ve got you, keep the party going” — some participants view all this as QE since balance sheet went up a hell of a lot in a week.
This doesn’t help with their battle against inflation. I can’t imagine they are giving up that fight, so what’s their move?
I don’t think anybody knows, which is why Wednesday is event of the week/month/quarter.
I’m going to say - for now - the move is long Mon/Tue afternoon. Wednesday, you’ve got to be on the beach and just wait for the waves to start - then give it a few hours or even a day. It will be a massively trend setting day.
I will note that my inputs — DXY, TNX, 2Y are very broke right now and not lining up like normal - so I’m confused by everything going on - but I don’t think I’m alone…..

Expected move (per options chain)

QQQ 200 MA: 290.11
SPY 200 MA: 392.80

QQQ +/- 11
SPY +/- 12

Current position: I’ve got AMD and QQQ puts (June 2023) that I’m holding just to keep my bearish heart alive.
I’m long NQ as of Sunday night expecting a follow on QQQ move Mon-Tue with this ‘everything is OK, nothing fails’ + ‘anything but banks’ tailwind
I’ll probably hold my QQQ puts through FOMC (because they are so far out and position size is small), but I’ll otherwise be in cash and waiting several hours after the man speak to see what next move is.

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QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 2 weeks ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market Week Ahead: March 13, 2023 - QQQ 280-300 range; Special Banking Announcements + CPI + PPI + Retail Sales

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: CPI @ 0830, FOMC Bowman @ 1720
Wednesday: PPI, Retail Sales, NY Manu @ 0830
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Housing Data, Philly @ 0830
Friday: Industrial Production @ 0915, UMICH @ 1000
NEXT Week: FOMC

Last week: SIVB collapse wasn’t on my bingo card, but that created systemic risk concerns in the market quickly. We pulled back quite a bit and ripped through key support levels on both QQQ and SPY.

Economic calendar: CPI, PPI, Retail sales and UMICH are on deck this week. Week 2 of the economic data party…..

Bears took the reigns last week with the systemic banking risk fears in their favor and the 50bps move on Fed Watch being 80% likely for next FOMC.

The bearish case remains squarely in deteriorating fundamentals in the face of rising rates.

The bullish case is technical and narrative shifting (never seems to stop…)

With the chaos of last week, the DXY correlation with QQQ changed. It started trading INLINE with it instead of INVERSE of it. This is the economy/recession trade vs the Fed/inflation trade in play. I am not sure if it will stay that way with the banking chaos going on - but it’s important to keep an eye on it. That can really mess up your inputs like it did for me last week.

Let’s talk about everything going on tonight (Sunday)

Fed came to the rescue of depositors, providing full backing for 100% of deposits. This is unheard of. It’s normally only 250k per depositor provided by FDIC. They say that tax payers won’t cover this, but the banks will - but we know that means it will flow down to the end customer. So while not technically the taxpayer, still the same group of people. Slick.

They did NOT however provide a bailout for the bank and its management. They basically said - manage your house or lose it. We only care about the customers and their faith in the banking system.

This was a stroke of genius on the part of the Fed. This backs the consumers/economy with confidence and puts the banks in check (way overdue).

With this news - and a second bank being closed for similar problems (SBNY) — Fed watch fliped to 25bps to 84% - it was 80% 50bps on Thursday - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The futures ripped up 1.5% on this news.
CPI is coming out on Tuesday morning, but I won’t be trading it - it’s looking like a mixed one. If there’s shock to one side or the other, I’ll jump in in the waves an hour later.
PPI (Wednesday), however, is expected to slow down quite a lot - that could be interesting (bullish).
The NFP news on Friday was actually bullish - adding jobs + lower wages. It just got totally lost in the 0DTE volatility + overwhelming focus on banking news.
There’s going to be an address from Biden about banking system. I wouldn’t be surprised to see JPow pop up somewhere, as well making everybody feel good.
All this to say, I think we’re looking bullish for Monday. I expect a gap up from wherever we open up, regardless of where futures push it.
Beyond that, we’re going to need to see what all announcements are made. I’m less interested in technicals for the next 48 hours because Fundamentals always….always…trump technicals - and we’ve got several incoming.
This is going to be an exciting week, no matter what - so keep your stops in to protect your downside — and stay agile. Between major economic announcements and 0DTE stupidity, roller coaster for sure this week.

Technicals (Latest):

QQQ 200 MA: 290.09
SPY 200 MA: 393.16

Expected move (per options chain)

QQQ +/- 12
SPY +/- 10

Trading Plan (This Week):

Current position: I traded the rip on Sunday night with NQ after I saw Fed announcement.
I’m just looking for another spot to go long, expecting a rip up at/before the open.
I plan to write a Wednesday update to see where we are then.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 2 weeks ago

by: samosa

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Weekly Market Preview - March 13th, 2023

UPDATE - Fed Has Released the Following Statements on the SIVB Situation

These came out after my preview was done.

federalreserve.gov/newsevents/...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm

TLDR - If you are a bank and are doing poor risk management, we will shut you down and make sure the depositers are made whole. Historical...

Last Week Recap -

What a week... SPY went to a high of 407 to 384. That is a massive range and SPY was actually trading at 401 on Thursday morning. So effectively, we saw a 17 point drop in 2 days as we closed near the lows of the week on Friday. So what happened?

Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress and we saw the hawk come back out. 50 BPS is now back on the table and the Fedswaps actually have it favored above 25 BPS. We also had nonfarm payroll data releasing on Friday, and it came in pretty bullish for the inflation trade. Lower wage rate, and higher unemployment gives a tip to the Fed that their actions may start to be working and thus they can back off some. So with that data, why didn't we blast higher? We had a black swan event.

Silicon Valley Bank had a bank run. They announced they were looking at raising $2billion and that spooked customers and immediately triggered a bank run. The stock plummeted and the bank is now under FDIC control. This has caused actual fear in the markets that is this a systemic issue or a one off problem. I am no banking expert, nor do I invest in the financial sector so I am going to let the chips fall as they may. There are a lot of theories floating around, and I think 99% of them get debunked by midweek. But... the fear is real and that fear can stick around in the back of people's minds for awhile. So did we just shift into the recession theme?

Let's move on to the bullish and bearish thesis section to see what lies ahead.

Bearish Thesis -

2 Week outlook
- Bears got a small "something is going to break" event last week with SIVB's bankrun. Now with those fears present, the market took a pretty emphatic move lower. We have CPI and retail sales this week, and FOMC is in two weeks. The technicals also show SPY back under the bear market trendline. With the SIVB fear present, and those major data releases upcoming, the bears look to be back in control.
1 month outlook
- The FOMC meeting now becomes an even more critical meeting. 50 BPS is back on the table and it appears the Fed's policies maybe starting to seeing its impact on the economy. However, it is not slowing inflation down which is the primary enemy. So JPow can get away with one more 50 BPS hike here and then resort back to the 25BPS hikes for future meetings.
  If we get an economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS,. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser.
3 months+ outlook
- Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. (Same as last week)

Bullish Thesis -

2 Week Outlook
- Something broke in the economy and that something was SIVB. But... is this a systemic issue or a one off? If the SIVB issues get worked out via a govt. bailout or a private acquisition, the market will look to regain the 390 support and retest the bear market trendline. CPI is on Tuesday, so if that data comes in cooler, we are squeezing all the way until FOMC. What a shift a few days can make where the bulls are now relying on data to save them. Now if SIVB, does not get a timely resolution, the market may react negatively to this. However, SVIB failing could signal the Fed to only do 25 BPS hike in the next FOMC meeting and start the discussion of pausing in the economic projections.
1 Month Outlook
- SIVB be damned, the jobs data gave the Fed a possible soft landing scenario. Low wage rate increase (no wage spiral) and higher unemployment (softening of labor conditions). Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him due to SIVB breaking. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low.
3 Month Outlook
- The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. (same as last week)

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives.

My Prediction -

I was wrong last week as we did not see a sustainable pop after the pullback. I got caught holding longs, but my stops kicked in and allowed me to save a green week.

We have an eventful week ahead. CPI is Tuesday, Retail sales is Wednesday, ECB Rate hike decision is Thursday and the sneaky UoM Sentiment report is Friday. All while, everyone is awaiting the fallout from the SIVB crisis.

If the CPI data comes in hot, does that put 50 BPS hike back on the table? Does the Fed even consider 50 BPS again since the banking sector is a bit shaky right now.

I am looking for a rebound on the SIVB situation getting resolved. CPI being Tuesday, so I anticipate some de-risking on Monday. There is no real point to playing any bigger trades until that data is presented. Retail sales on Wednesday will be critical for us to determine how far off is the recession, and if the consumer is still as strong as it has shown in previous months.

So the play I am looking at getting into is a gold miner, NEM. With risk off getting more attention, Gold looks to be catching a bid. So I will grab some calls for June sometime this week.
I will continue to scalp the indicies for small plays this week.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -

Check the full calendar here. No Fed Speakers this week. They are in a blackout period: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Monday - Nothing major
Tuesday -CPI at 8:30am
Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am
Wednesday - PPI Data at 8:30am
Wednesday - Business Inventories at 10:00am
Thursday - Building Permits at 8:30am
Thursday - Import/Export Data at 8:30am
Thursday - EU Interest Rate Decision at 9:15am (DXY implications)
Friday - UoM Sentiment at 10am (sneaky report)

Current Positions and Plays -

I am all cash and looking at scalping and entering some longer dated calls for Gold miners.

SPY Technicals -

SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour are oversold. Daily is close to oversold.
SPY broke below the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) - Purple fibs on the chart.
- 401 is the .382
- 391 is the .618
- 396 is the .500
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart.

Levels I am Watching

$SPY - levels 383, 385, 390 (major), 393, 396
$QQQ - levels 285, 288, 290 (major), 293, 296
NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures.
This is not financial advice

0

QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 3 weeks ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 27, 2023 - QQQ 293-308 range; JPow + JOLTS + NFP

Monday: Factory Orders @ 1000
Tuesday: JPow - Senate @ 1000; Consumer Credit @ 1500
Wednesday: ADP @ 0815 (does this matter anymore?), JPow - House @ 1000, JOLTS @ 1000
Thursday: Jobless Claims @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 1000
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls + Wages @ 0830 (event of the week)
NEXT Week: CPI + PPI + Retail Sales + UMICH
NEXT NEXT Week: FOMC

Last week: I was at a year high going into Thursday morning - then went short on the morning’s data (bearish) when we broke through 200MA support. I was dancing. Then Bostic spoke + we bounced. Hard. That ripped my head off, I had no stop in. Then I averaged down on Thursday night, piling in more to the short. You can look at the Thu/Fri chart to see how this turned out. Ouch. I’ve got a new stop policy that will prevent such a screwup in the future.
Economic calendar: We’re getting this party started this week with JPow, JOLTS, NFP; then next week CPI + PPI. Then FOMC after that.
Repeating from last week: My overall sentiment has not changed - I’m bearish and remain so. It’s going to take months to play out, however, with the unemployment rate and insane consumer spending. I still think we’re just going to run off a cliff and ‘break’ something. That’s not today or even this month.
The bearish case remains squarely in deteriorating fundamentals in the face of rising rates.
The bullish case is technical and narrative shifting - which has been done brilliantly.
I have to fight hard with myself to go long in this market, because I don’t believe in it - but the bulls are in charge right now. The market, by default, just wants to go up. The vast, vast majority of market participants are buy and hold - not traders. So the market will always be bent to the upside.
Until the market finds that cliff it’s going to run off (eventually), I’m going to bend my brain to the long side. If I can find any reason to go long - I will. Probably.
I have been staying away from events - meaning I’m always out of my position ahead of the ones that matter. THat’s proven to be effective. Trading the follow-on wave works very well once you let the market figure out what way it wants to go (not always clear in the first 5-10 min how it wants to process the data)
This will be important this week because we’ve got events each day starting on Tuesday.
So, technicals.
We bounced right off the 200MA on both SPY and QQQ last week. I don’t see us testing the 200MA again until some seriously bad data drops or FOMC.
The Daily on SPY + QQQ say we’ve got plenty of room to run
30M says we need to pullback first (Monday)
The Weekly on SPY is neutral. QQQ says we’ve got room to run.
DXY spent the back half of the week cooling off — 105.30 is tough for it to crack. I expect it to grind sideways in 104 range until Friday on NFP - then it will move big. It’s going tick for tick on NQ/QQQ though. DXY up, QQQ down. DXY down, QQQ up.

Expected move (per options chain)

QQQ 200 MA: 290.06
SPY 200 MA: 393.14

QQQ +/- 7.84
SPY +/- 8.50

SPY had a weekly range of 392 to 404, closing just above 404. It was a wild week with the market starting off with a bounce, and then by Thursday in premarket, SPY was testing the 200 Daily Moving Average near 393. Once it tested it, the buyers stepped and blasted us higher to 404.

I predicted a bounce last week, but unfortunately I got caught being married to the bearish side midweek. Once we got a revision in the wage data on Thursday morning, I went overly bearish and it cost me. The power of the 200 Moving Day Average was way stronger than that data. Lesson learned, and we move forward.

I believe I have spotted the missing link in my previews and I will talk more about that in my prediction section.

Let's move on to the bullish and bearish thesis section to see what lies ahead.

Current position: I’m currently short NQ. I’ve got 50 point stop loss and a 100 point closing order. (OCO)
I’m looking for a pullback overnight/Monday from where we are now
I’ll be looking for spots to go long
QQQ 293 I’d buy with both hands
QQQ 313 I’d short with both hands

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1

SPY - SPDR S&P 500 3 weeks ago

by: samosa

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Weekly Market Preview - March 6th, 2023

Last Week Recap -

Bearish Thesis -

2 Week outlook
- We blasted higher last week, but we had more bearish data come out with a massive revision up on the wage rate data. However, that data was not enough to hold back the buyers from the 200 MA bounce. Technicals support a small pullback here back to 400 or even 398, but it appears that will be the extent of it barring a major economic data update. Maybe from the jobs data on Friday?
1 month outlook
- This is all about the FOMC meeting in March. If we get an economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS, then that will signal to the market that they were again way too premature on predicting a rate pause or cut to be within the next 2 meetings. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser. (Same as last week)
3 months+ outlook
- Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. (Same as last week)

Bullish Thesis -

2 Week Outlook
- Yes, the fundamental data is bearish, but the market is holding up strongly. We are due for a small pullback from the technical standpoint, but that dip should be bought up pretty fast with the 200MA provided firm support. There is a landmine on Friday with the jobs data, but again the fundamental data has not seemed to be slowing the market down this year. The Fed is losing credibility by the day and that is short term bullish.
1 Month Outlook
- Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low. (same as last week)
3 Month Outlook
- The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. (same as last week)

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives.

My Prediction -

So let me first present my theory of what is currently happening with why the market is not reacting to fundamental data like last year.

Volume is now hiding in the option chains. So there are now 3 phases to the market currently. Technicals, fundamentals and now mechanics. They are using the mechanics to counter the fundamental data.

I believe TSLA cracked the mechanics code 4 years ago.

TSLA has always trumped the fundamental case against it. But there was always these crazy call options weekly that tended to push the stock up. The buyer was labeled the Tesla whale.
It was clearly successful and as Tesla continued to workout their issues and continue the hype train, the stock just went crazy. I think this strategy is now being implored in a more broader scope to hold up stocks until fundamental data improves.
Mechanics are working in overdrive to achieve this. Which is why bad news is not creating the moves like last year. The 0DTE changes helped fuel this.

So with that out of the way, I am looking for a pullback before the JPow testimony on Tuesday, and then buyers should step in very fast as the event is a nothing burger. These hearings will make you hate the government officials even more. They all tend to use their time to say how the other party is causing the current issues in the economy and then ask JPow if he agrees. He then simply responds with a "I cannot comment on those matters." The main fear here will be his opening remarks, once those are done, the market should rebound from any dip that may have occurred.

I will be scalping small wins or losses all week. We have major data on Friday with the nonfarm payrolls, so I will be playing it light this week. So to recap, looking for a pullback, and then a buy the dip moment to push us higher heading into Friday's report.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -

Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Monday - Factory Orders at 10:00am
Tuesday - JPow Hearing at 10:00am
Tuesday - TIPP Economic Optimism at 10:00am
Wednesday - EU LaGarde Speech at 5:00am (DXY Implications)
Wednesday - EU GDP and Employment Change at 5:00am
Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am
Wednesday - Import and Export Data at 8:30am
Wednesday - JOLTS Report at 10:00am
Wednesday - JPow Hearing at 10:00am
Wednesday - ISM Man PMI at 10:00am
Thursday - Nothing major
Friday - US Nonfarm Payrolls - 8:30am (the report of the week)

Current Positions and Plays -

I am holding a few QQQ puts for Friday. I will hold these into JPow's hearing on Tuesday to see some de-risk. I am looking at scalping with a small amount this week.

SPY Technicals -

SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and daily are neutral.
SPY is still above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) - Purple fibs on the chart. 407 is the resistance ahead and 401 is support.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart.

Levels I am Watching

$SPY - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 400, 405, 407 (major), 410
$QQQ - levels 290 (major), 293, 296, 298.50, 300, 303, 306, 310
NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures.
This is not financial advice

0

QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 1 month ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 27, 2023 - QQQ 290-298 range; many small events this week; technicals should drive.

Monday: Durable Goods @ 0830
Tuesday: S&P Home index @ 0900, Chicago PMI @ 0945, Consumer Confidence @ 1000
Wednesday: FOMC Kashkari @ 0900, ISM - Manufacturing @ 1000
Thursday: Jobless Claims @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 1600, FOMC Kashkar @ 1800
Friday: Services PMI @ 0945, ISM Services @ 1000, FOMC Bostic @ 1145, Fed Bowman @ 1500

Last week: I ended the week up. I didn’t trade much, it was a slow and steady week. I avoided trading ahead of the events, just the follow on wave after. No complaints.
Economic calendar: This is more difficult week than it seems. There’s no major economic event, but many smaller ones. Keep an eye on the calendar and step out of the way of any of them that might surprise you — ones I see are Kashkari speaking twice, the PMI/ISM data, and Consumer Confidence.
Earnings: Target is on Tuesday premarket and Lowes is in Wednesday premarket.
There looks to be nothing major in the way of fundamentals this week - though many smaller ones as I noted - so technicals are likely to run the show this week.
The bulls got a punch in the face with PCE on Friday. It came in hotter than expected and the market moved down in response to spike in DXY and TNX.
We closed well under 400 on SPY and well under 300 on QQQ — the sentiment took a turn last week.
My overall sentiment has not changed - I’m bearish and remain so. It’s going to take months to play out there with the unemployment rate and insane consumer spending. I still think we’re just going to run off a cliff and ‘break’ something. That’s not today, though.
We’re going to start hearing more about upcoming FOMC and for good reason. A 50bps rate hike is back on the table with these strong numbers out. A 50bps would be a blow to the inflation is dead argument, but more interesting will be the updated SEP numbers at this meeting. These will, without a doubt, get revised upward yet again. This should smack the market down. The next FOMC is March 22, 2023. JPow is looking over his glasses at us…
So, technicals.
We bounced right off the 200MA on both SPY and QQQ. I’d look for it to test it again. I am not convinced it will break it unless one of these many pieces of data this week is off the charts bad.
It looks like a week of grinding out technicals with 200MA support holding and probably ending higher on the week. This will be my trade this week.
It’s tough to short here (aka shorting in the hole) against that 200MA. I’d want to see it convincingly broken before I took a short out.
Weekly and Daily charts say OK to hold short position though.
NOTE: Next Friday is Non-Farm Payrolls - this will move the market.

QQQ 200 MA: 291.15
SPY 200 MA: 393.25

SPY had a weekly range of 404 to 393, closing just above 396. This was a week where the bears finally flexed some muscle and pushed the SPY under some key levels. The macro data came in hotter than expected on the inflation front with the PCE release on Friday. Also GDP came in under expectations on the Q4 revision. So that puts CPI, PPI, PCE all coming in hotter in January while GDP got revised lower. That was clean sweep for macro data for the bears in February.

So does the recent macro data open the door for the next leg lower in this bear market? Let's breakdown that question below by visiting the bullish and bearish arguments in a 2 week, 1 month and 3 month outlook.

Current position: I’ve got nothing at the moment. Traded NQ long tonight for some dinner money to start the week off right.
I’ll be eyeing the 200MA tests for a technical bounce/long trade.

Screenshot 2023-02-26 at 22.12.12.png 309.16 KB

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1

SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 month ago

by: samosa

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Weekly Market Preview - February 27th, 2023

Last Week Recap -

Bearish Thesis -

2 Week outlook
- The inflation data we got the past few weeks tells the market that the current rally was completely off base. So there should be a correction back to at least SPY 390 in the near term. This would put us right back in the chop zone that we were in prior to the FOMC February meeting.
1 month outlook
- This is all about the FOMC meeting in March. If we get a economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS, then that will signal to the market that they were again way too premature on predicting a rate pause or cut to be within the next 2 meetings. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser.
3 months+ outlook
- Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession.

Bullish Thesis -

2 Week Outlook
- Yes, inflation data came in hotter than expected, however QQQ did not break under its 200 day SMA and the charts are looking slightly oversold on the shorter timeframes. With no major economic data this week, a bounce is likely to happen at the current support.
1 Month Outlook
- Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low.
3 Month Outlook
- The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession.

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives.

My Prediction -

We do see a bounce at support for SPY to ultimately get us back over 400. I am looking for that bounce this week. The bulls have the stronger 2 week outlook imo, while the bears have the stronger 1 month outlook. So I am playing the potential bounce for the next 2 weeks and looking at playing it very cautious with tight stops.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -

Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Monday - EU Economic Statement at 5am (DXY implications)
Monday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
Monday - Dallas Fed Man Index at 10:30a
Tuesday - Retail and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30am
Tuesday - Chicago PMI at 9:45am
Tuesday - Consumer Confidence at 10am
Wednesday - SP PMI at 9:45am
Wednesday - ISM Man PMI at 10:00am
Thursday - EU's Inflation Report at 5:00am (DXY implications)
Friday - SP and Non-Man PMI at 9:45 and 10am

Current Positions and Plays -

I am holding 1 NQ long. Looking at scalping this all the way up if we start to rally. I will close it out ahead of the data releases each day. I am much better at reacting to data, then predicting data.

SPY Technicals -

SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour is close to oversold on RSI but the MACD is curling down. Daily chart is at neutral on the RSI but MACD is curling down.
SPY has closed under its 50 MA average but is still above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) - We are right in the golden zone for a bounce at the 50 line and 61.8 line. Purple fibs on the chart. Those levels are highlighted in gold.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart.

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Percentages from the Highs

SPY is approximately -18% (479 HIGH)
QQQ is approximately -28% (408 HIGH)
DJX is approximately -11% (369 HIGH)
IWM is approximately -24% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

$SPY - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 400, 405, 407 (major)
$QQQ - levels 290 (major), 293, 296, 298.50, 300
NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures.
This is not financial advice

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Mentions: SPY QQQ

QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 1 month ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 20, 2023 - QQQ 295-305 range; FOMC Minutes + PCE.

Monday: US Markets closed - though Futures are open for a limited session Sun-Mon
Tuesday: PMI @ 0945
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes @ 1400 ⚠️ + FOMC Williams @ 1830
Thursday: Jobless Claims + GDP @ 0830, Fed Bostic @ 1045
Friday: PCE @ 0830 ⚠️⚠️ + UMich @ 1000 ⚠️ + FOMC Mester @ 1015

Last week: I ended the week overall down just slightly, but I was very pleased with OPEX. Traded that well and Friday I was nicely green to finish the week.
Economic calendar: FOMC Minutes (is everybody else as Jolly as JPow?) and PCE will be the headline pieces of data.
Earnings: WMT and HD report on Tue/Feb 21. I expect them to both guide down a bit.
From last week: “I think we could see an uptick in CPI (as early as the March 14 report) and JPow to come in with a 50bps with new SEP. FOMC next meeting + SEP will be March 22. If not then, then it’ll be during the summer/June meeting. Inflation is pushing higher at some point.”
CPI ticked higher and you’re already hearing rumblings about 50bps may be needed again….it’s coming. Just may not be as fast as bears want.
I’ll be interested in the FOMC minutes on Wednesday to see if everybody is as equally Jolly as JPow has been. Out in the wild, they are showing some hawkishness. To me that suggests and upward revision in SEP….again.
For now though, this is a bull’s game. They’ve got the Fed adding fuel to the fire with the 25bps + general tone. Every dip is being bought for the most part. There’s many indicators in the bulls favor right now for data that’s known.
There was a sentiment change on Thursday/Friday - even if only temporary, when something went splat at exactly 3pm on Thursday. Then we just went on a typical OpEx Friday ride of big candles going in both directions early on (mechanical).
This is a shortened holiday week and likely to be low volume until FOMC minutes and then PCE on Friday. That normally favors a move to the upside.
DXY is going tick for tick with QQQ. It’s hovering around 104. A move down to 103 will blast it higher, a move to 105 will smack it down. The script hasn’t flipped yet on that one.
However, there’s some technical indicators pointing towards a pullback. QQQ looks on a path down, SPY a bit stronger, but it’s not far from its key 405 level.
Overall, looks choppy to me. I don’t see a big move in either direction until Wednesday and then again on Friday.
SPY held a key number (closing) - 405
QQQ held a key number (closing) - 300

QQQ 200 MA: 291 (well above it)
SPY 200 MA: 393.61 (still well above it)

QQQ + TIP overlay - short thesis

Current position: I’ve got nothing at the moment.
I just don’t see any clear trade today, but my lean (big surprise) is bearish mostly due to divergence of QQQ with TIP.
So I’ll be looking for an entry on a pop to go short and bet on technicals triggering a pull back.
Once that happens, I’ll be looking to go long - maybe.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 month ago

by: samosa

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Weekly Market Preview - February 13th, 2023

Last Week Recap -

SPY had a weekly range of 405 to 416, closing near 408. Another wild week that saw both bulls and bears eat pies in the face. JPow's speech on Tuesday sparked a nice pop and then it immediately got faded back down. Only to then recover again at the close on Tuesday. But from Wednesday until the close of the week, we saw continued selling. I got caught in holding longs thinking we would see some CPI optimism going into next week. That proved to be a big mistake as I completely missed two things, the bond market believing more rate hikes were coming, and the projections for the upcoming CPI came in much hotter than last months.

We have a lot of important data releasing this week. CPI will get the most attention, but I am more focused on the retail sales data on Wednesday. The CPI reading is expected to be a little hotter than last months, and plays into the sticky inflation narrative. Retail sales, however could hurt the soft landing narrative if they come in cool. This could be the shift of the narrative to recession fears.

My Prediction -

All eyes will be on the CPI report early in the week, but I do believe that could be a minor impact on the next trend. I am more interested in the retail sales data on Wednesday to show if the consumer is still showing signs of weakness. I will be squarely focused on the TNX and DXY this week. If those two can maintain their recent strength, there should be a sell off in tech. The 200 Daily SMA for QQQ is 291 and I expect us to test that before a possible bounce.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -

Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Monday - Nothing major
Tuesday - US CPI at 8:30am
Wednesday - UK CPI at 2:00am
Wednesday - US Retail Sales at 8:30am
Wednesday - EU's LaGarde speech at 9:00am (DXY implications)
Wednesday - Various Industrial and Business Inventory Reports at 9:15am and 10am
Thursday - US PPI at 8:30am
Friday - Nothing major

Current Positions and Plays -

I am holding 2 NQ shorts. Looking at exiting these on Monday or Tuesday before CPI. I will then start scalping until the retail data comes out on Wednesday.

SPY Technicals -

SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are near or at neutral.
SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380.

Percentages from the Highs

SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

$SPY - levels 396, 400, 405, 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures.
This is not financial advice

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QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 1 month ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 13, 2023 - QQQ 292-305 range; CPI + Retail Sales + Fed Speakers.

Monday: NY Fed 1 & 5 year inflation @ 1100
Tuesday: CPI @ 0830 ⚠️, FOMC Williams @ 1400
Wednesday: Retail Sales @ 0830 ⚠️
Thursday: Jobless claims + Housing + Philly Fed @ 0830., FOMC Mester @ 0845, FOMC Bullard @ 1330
Friday: Nothing.
Note: There are more Fed speakers on the calendar, so please check that. I just noted ones I am interested in.

Last week: I ended the week slightly up, but basically flat. Had a big mistake post-JPow, but recovered it by end of week.

Economic calendar: Unless you’re living under a rock, you know it’s CPI week. This one could be spicy. I’ll explain.

Earnings: This is done as far as I’m concerned, so I’ll drop this point.

The bond market made an critical change in positioning this week - they’re now believing the Fed that we’re going higher, possibly to 6%. Mike @ Mott covered this very well - https://youtu.be/SGHtp3t_5o4?t=434
The yield curve is 100% inverted. The 2/10 continues to push higher. QQQ was rising with it (shouldn’t be) and finally got the message late last week.
The bulls sound like they’re getting a little sweaty up here — for the short-term.
Repeat from last week: I think we could see an uptick in CPI (as early as the March 14 report) and JPow to come in with a 50bps with new SEP. FOMC next meeting + SEP will be March 22. If not then, then it’ll be during the summer/June meeting. Inflation is pushing higher at some point.
Repeating from last week: I expect pretty much any dip to get bought until either CPI reverses course OR unemployment ticks up a few notches. No hope for the bears until then, because even earnings aren’t missing quite enough yet.
Well….updated CPI consensus numbers came in last week and they ticked higher.
Then on Friday, BLS released revised CPI numbers for previous three months. All numbers ticked up, including reversing December’s infamous -0.1% to +0.1% - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577589-january-cpi-report-shock-market
MoM and especially Core MoM is what Bulls are betting on most. As I’ve been pounding the table on, inflation isn’t dead - not even close - it just slowed the pace down for now. Easing financial conditions (clearly visible on NFCI) + 25bps + Jolly JPow are only adding fuel to that fire. Mark it - they will have to come back and hit it harder at some point - before they even pause - not after.
Now let’s talk charts….
SPY held a key number - 405
QQQ basically held a key number - 300
Opening under 299 should be a quick move down to 296
Opening above 300 would be impressive, but I think it gets sold off by EOD (derisking this spicy CPI)

Technicals (Latest):

QQQ 200 MA: 291 (well above it)
SPY 200 MA: 394 (still well above it)

Trading Plan (This Week):

Current position: I entered an NQ short on Friday at the close and added more to it on Sunday night for an average of 12,320 NQ
I’m looking for 12250 at least, but 12200 before CPI
I will NOT hold through CPI. I intend to be neutral on Monday afternoon or early Tuesday at the latest
After CPI, I’ll decide what to do - I want to review the data (not the initial market reaction)
If warm/higher than expected, I’d expect QQQ 292. I do not expect a ‘hot’ reading.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 month ago

by: samosa

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Weekly Market Preview - February 6th, 2023

Last Week Recap -

SPY had a weekly range of 400 to 418, closing near 412. It was a crazy week with major events happening all over the place, including FOMC and AAPL earnings. Jerome Powell came in very tame in his demeanor and the bulls took that as an indicator that the Fed pain is starting to subside. During his speech on Wednesday, the market blasted higher and set the stage for the soft landing to carry the momentum upward for a few more weeks.

AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG all released earnings on Thursday in afterhours. The earnings were not great, and the market seemed to handle the reports pretty well in afterhours. Friday in premarket brought a very hot jobs report that sent the market down to test under 411, but the dip was quickly bought up on Friday.

The internet is filled with reviews of earnings and FOMC from last week, but I want to concentrate on the jobs report for a moment. One bullish note for the jobs data was that wage rates stayed the same and unemployment ticked lower. The wage data being flat helps ease the inflation fears for the upcoming CPI report on 02/14. However, the jobs number came in scorching hot (comically hot honestly) at +500k. That helps the DXY gain some momentum which is a bearish sign for tech and commodities. So the jobs report may fuel the next pullback if the DXY can keep the upward momentum it grabbed on Friday.

My Prediction -

The market is pretty frothy up here and is ripe for a technical pullback. I am going to be looking at the DXY and seeing if it can hold 103 on Monday. I think there is a chance that we get a vey quick pullback on Monday and part of Tuesday where SPY retests 407. That would clear up some of the technicals and allow for any dip buyers to feel more comfortable to enter.

I believe the catalyst for the dip buying will be the JPow event on Tuesday turning into a nonevent and the dip buyers show up in full force again. This time they will run the market up to 420 before the CPI report. If we get there before next week, then we will consolidate and slowly grind up.

As a bear, I hate typing this, but it is what it is. There is no major economic events this week that can cause much fear outside of JPow completely flipping his dovish stance on Tuesday. He is not going to do that in my opinion with FOMC only being 6 days ago. That would kill all credibility he has left.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -

Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Monday - Nothing major
Tuesday - US Balance of Trade at 8:30am
Tuesday - JPow speech at 12:40pm
Tuesday - CMG earnings in afterhours
Wednesday - A lot of Fed Speakers throughout the day
Wednesday - UBER earnings in premarket and DIS Earnings in Afterhours
Thursday - No major economic data (weekly jobless claims but not major)
Friday - UK GDP at 2:00am (DXY implications/ global recession fears)
Friday - UoM Consumer at 10am

Current Positions and Plays -

All cash for now.
I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being.

SPY Technicals -

SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour and Daily charts are close to overbought.
SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380.

Percentages from the Highs

SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

$SPY - levels 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures.
This is not financial advice

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 month ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market - Week Ahead: Feb 6, 2023 - SPY 400-420 range; Fed speakers everywhere; macro thoughts.

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: JPow in the wild @ 1240; Fed Barr @ 1400; Consumer Credit @ 1500
Wednesday: Fed spakers: Cook @ 0930, Bostic & Barr @ 1000, Kashkari @ 1230 (one to watch), Waller @ 1345
Thursday: Jobless claims @ 0830
Friday: UMICH Inflation Expectations @ 1000, Waller @ 1230, Harker @ 4pm

Wednesday: DIS after hours only one of interest to me this week

Last week: SPY was 400-412 - my prediction was 390-410. Pretty close on the high end, totally missed on bottom end, FOMC Q&A was a total surprise to me. Will discuss below. Overall, I was up a little for the week, so no complaints here.

Economic Calendar: Fed speakers bonanza - please look at calendar above. NOTE: CPI is next Tuesday (14th).

Earnings: DIS on Wednesday are only that I think are significant. Last week was even crazier than I expected.

Let’s talk about macro…..

FOMC going for 25bps was a surprise to nobody, so expected there. What WAS a surprise was how Jolly JPow was. He shrugged off everything, basically gave up the battle against strong jobs, and communicated to the market to let the good times roll. For the bears, there was nothing new - same line about holding the line. For the bulls, he gave them a damn buffet of reasons to go long - and you saw the market respond in kind.

The Bond market + stock market continues to say they don’t believe the Fed and they’ll pause + cut sooner rather than later. I still don’t see this being the case. I stick to my position that they are not cutting until something breaks (not even close right now) OR end of year/Q4.

I’d go the other way, actually. I think we could see an uptick in CPI (as early as the March 14 report) and JPow to come in with a 50bps with new SEP. FOMC next meeting + SEP will be March 22. If not then, then it’ll be during the summer/June meeting. Inflation is pushing higher at some point.

Financial conditions ( https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data ) continue to loosen, thus this rally we’re in.
QQQ was 260 exactly a month ago. It was 313 on Thursday. 🤯
Repeating: The yield curve is 100% inverted. That has never failed to predict a recession (by any definition).
Repeating: As I said last week, I’m overall bearish but that won’t start working until 2Q and on. I think bulls have it for Q1, which is fine - I can go long too, even if I’m grinding my teeth.
Repeating: Short-term, as I said, the bulls have it. Bad news is OK, good news is rocket ships. Nothing is fazing them. All dips get bought. It’s reminding me of mania of days gone by (that didn’t end well). True trash is running again. It’s always the end run before the big drop or rug pull.
That jobs report was so strong, even the economists that were predicting it felt ashamed. They missed by a mile. I do have a theory about this. Despite layoffs in tech (high paying), people are easily able to get a new job still, plus they have sizable severance packages, so they have time. Due to inflation being rough + COVID couch party being over, the lower end of the job spectrum is having to get back in there. To me, this supports the rising number and the flat/decreasing wages.
I’ve said over and over, the real drop will come when unemployment starts ticking up. For now, there’s no sign of that, so risk is to the downside. It’s party time for the bulls and I expect pretty much any dip to get bought until either CPI reverses course OR unemployment ticks up a few notches. No hope for the bears until then, because even earnings aren’t missing quite enough yet.
Now let’s talk charts….
Repeating: Wow. Just wow.
SPY 394 is the 200MA and it’s well above it now - and it will start bending up soon.
Looking at the Daily chart, SPY is getting very toppy here, is likely to cool off
QQQ may have already started its pullback, RSI topped out, MACD still pointing straight up, but I think it pulls back from here.
Repeating: I’m seeing a lot of capitulation of bears into bulls - which means that we’re right at the line - technically at least.
Rumblings in China<>US over this ballon worth noting.

Technicals (Latest):

SPY levels: 400, 408, 410, 416, 420
200 MA: 394

Trading Plan (This Week):

Current position: I’m holding nothing. I scalped some NQ this evening.
I would happily go short QQQ at 308 and certainly 313
I’ll be watching the technical conditions to see when they get worked out before going long
I will stay out of the way on Wednesday - Fed speakers all day.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 2 months ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market - Week Ahead: January 30, 2023 - SPY 390-410 range; major data, earnings, and JPow 😱

⚠️This week is absolutely bonkers with all the data that’s coming out. Buckle up and keep it light. ⚠️

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Chicago PMI @ 0945, Consumer Confidence @ 10am
Wednesday: ADP @ 0815, NFCI @ 0830, PMI - Manufacturing @ 0945, JOLTS @ 1000, FOMC @ 1400, JPOW @ 1430 ⚠️
Thursday: Jobless claims @ 0830, Factory Orders @ 1000
Friday: NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls & Wages) @ 0830, PMI Services @ 0945, ISM @ 1000

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: XOM, MCD, UPS premarket; AMD, SNAP afterhours
Wednesday: META afterhours
Thursday: AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, the list goes on and on in afterhours ⚠️
Friday:

Last week: SPY was 393.56-408 - my prediction was 393-405. If only my execution were as good as my Sunday calls! Jeez. I inched up overall last week, but it took until end of week when it broke my “blue line” before I could get on the bull train, so I missed out on a lot of easy money. Despite all the froth, I’m not willing to hold long positions very long. My inner bear still there…short/puts? I can still sleep with at night.

Economic Calendar: There’s so much economic data this week, all I can tell you is keep it light. I’m going to try to avoid holding any position going into the major data releases. If I want to jump back in after and ride the wave, then fine. I don’t need the initial ‘could go either way’ candle.

Earnings: Earnings are my achilles heel, so I’m going to try to avoid them this season. I will not hold a position into any of the afterhours releases, especially Thursday’s (AAPL AMZN GOOGL, etc etc etc). META seems to have a lot of eyes on it this time.

Let’s talk about macro…..

The yield curve is 100% inverted. That has never failed to predict a recession (by any definition).

As I said last week, I’m overall bearish but that won’t start working until 2Q and on. I think bulls have it for Q1, which is fine - I can go long too, even if I’m grinding my teeth.

New lows are coming, but it won’t be until the bulls have one more ride. Unemployment is still months from getting moving. This is the real number to be watching, which is why every NFP is critical to spot the shift.

We haven’t even seen the realtime indicator on jobs (claims) start ticking up. It’s actually doing the opposite. I think this is not a goldilocks indicator, but simply all these layoffs from companies haven’t caught up yet, probably due to severance packages that are months-big. I’m also not seeing much damage in the real economy - restaurants are still full, everybody is doing their thing. I’m seeing SOME hesitation on spending now, so it’s starting, but it’s not here yet.

Short-term, as I said, the bulls have it. Bad news is OK, good news is rocket ships. Nothing is fazing them. All dips get bought. It’s reminding me of mania of days gone by (that didn’t end well). True trash is running again. It’s always the end run before the big drop or rug pull.

Financial conditions are loosening again - which JPow doesn’t like — https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data (tight = above 0, loose = below 0)
Inflation is going to return at this pace. The markets will absolutely shit themselves when that CPI ticks up again (but again, that’s probably several prints away). JPow knows this so I will not be shocked if he comes in a 50bps (though he’s 90% going to do 25bps)
If he does only come in with 25bps he’s going to be hawkish as hell in his tone — but I don’t think markets will care because they got the 25bps and it markets will keep going up. The only thing that’s going to stop this train is real change in corporate earnings OR spike in unemployment OR 50-75bps hike OR tick up in CPI.
None of the above are likely to happen soon - at least in Q1.
Now let’s talk charts….
Wow. Just wow.
SPY 395 is the 200MA and it’s well above it now.
Looking at the Daily chart, SPY still has room to go up
QQQ is the one though. It’s been pushing up big time. It’s up over 15% on the year (just this month!). RSI is right at the level where it gets a big pullback, almost every time. It looks perfectly aligned to rage right into JPow or AAPL (latest) and then collapse by 15-20 points. This the main trade I’m looking for this week.
I’m seeing a lot of capitulation of bears into bulls - which means that we’re right at the line - technically at least.
I do not expect any impressive earnings or guidance this week from the majors.

Technicals (Latest):

SPY levels: 393, 396, 400, 408, 410, 416
200 MA: 395

Trading Plan (This Week):

Current position: I’m holding nothing.
I’m looking at 408-410 to go short ES or NQ - as long as there’s no earnings surprises. I’ll use ES options if before Thursday; and normal ES/NQ if after AAPL earnings
I expect I’ll be short at whatever price we’re at after AAPL earnings on Thursday night
Only risk will be NFP on Friday - but I’m guessing it’s around expectations (they nailed it last time), so +200k

QQQ, daily -- note the RSI peaks.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 2 months ago

by: samosa

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Weekly Market Preview - January 23rd, 2023

Last Week Recap -

SPY had a weekly range of 387 to 400, closing near 396. The market absorbed the poor retail numbers and had a nice pullback from 400 to 388 on Wednesday to Thursday. It then had a monster rally on Friday to close near 396 on Monthly options expiration. Netflix had ok earnings and pretty good subscriber growth numbers. So how much of the rally was options magic or how much of the rally was actually merited? Time will tell this week.

The bulls still have a nice narrative building here with inflation coming down, unemployment staying low, and Fed slowing rate hikes. But the retail data from last week did show that the consumer is slowing their spending. That is a key element to the soft landing narrative. There is a lot of front loading happening here by the bulls, but it may spark a continued move for weeks to come.

The bears recession argument got some more support with the poor December retail sales as well as all the Fed Speakers still signaling that no rate hike cut was imminent.
I will keep adding this point in all my previews:  If the market is strong, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, then why would the Fed pause here? IF anything they can keep pounding QT and lower the balance sheet without much fear of the market stumbling.

So, here we sit again for the second week in a row near the bear market line of rejection and the 200 Daily moving Average. Do we reject here, or breakthrough?

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -

Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Blackout Period for the Fed until FOMC on Feb 1st.
Monday - EU LaGarde Speech at 12:45PM (DXY implications)
Tuesday - US PMI at 9:45am
Tuesday - MSFT Earnings in Afterhours
Wednesday - No Major Economic Data
Wednesday - BA and T Earnings in Premarket
Wednesday - TSLA Earnings in Afterhours
Thursday - AAL, LUV, and MC in premarket
Thursday - INTC and V earnings in after-hours
Thursday - US GDP at 8:30am
Friday - PCE Data at 8:30am
Friday - UoM Consumer at 10am

My Prediction -

This is going to sound like a repeat from last week, but I honestly think we have the same setup. Wait for a pullback and then enter long for a rally. Microsoft earnings are the main event this week, so that can be the cause of the pullback, or the resumption of the uptrend based on the results. I do not think there is much of a market wide bearish case for TSLA’s earnings. The name has been beaten up so badly already, that there is not much more for bears to take from the earnings imo.

The GDP and PCE data at the end of the week are minor and should not cause much of a market reaction. I am a bear at heart, but this is looking like more bullish momentum heading into FOMC next week as long as MSFT’s earnings are not abysmal. I still have a rally target for 430 for this run. It may take a few weeks/months.

Though I am long term bearish, short term bullish, I will not be swinging any core positions. I am having a lot of success scalping the directions each day, so I am going to stick with that.

Current Positions and Plays -

I scalped all week long and played the pullback nicely. My goal is to net 20 ES points a day in scalps, and I was able to do that for the week.
I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being.

SPY Technicals -

SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to overbought. 1 hour, 4 hour, and Daily charts are a little higher than neutral.
SPY is right at its 200 MA average and near the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. We tested this line and it ultimately held as support. I do not see us testing 390 again until the conclusion of this bear market rally. 407 is the next Fib line higher.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. The next level is 418.

Percentages from the Highs

SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

$SPY - levels 390 (major) > 393 > 396 > 398 > 400 > 403 > 410 (major)
NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures.
This is not financial advice

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 2 months ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market - Week Ahead: January 23, 2023 - SPY 393/405 range; bulls in charge.

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: PMI Services @ 0945
Wednesday: Nothing.
Thursday: Jobless claims, Goods, GDP, Chicago data @ 0830
Friday: PCE, Spending @ 0830, UMich 10am (!!)

Tuesday: Some industrials in premarket; MSFT in afterhours (!!)
Wednesday: TSLA afterhours
Thursday: Mastercard premarket, Visa afterhours
Friday: Oil companies premarket

Last week: SPY was 387-400 - my prediction was 390-402 — not bad! I had a nice week overall, I ticked up against last week. I’ve been trading almost exclusively ES and NQ. They’re easier to trade - and hod - than SPX options, so far. I missed out on untold amounts of money by calling the move, but not holding through it (typically being early and then jumping out at first sign of profit). I’ve got to believe in the trades more to optimize my profit.
Economic Calendar: Bulls have a clear run until Thursday morning. Only thing they’ll battle is technicals at 400, 405. Friday with PCE + UMich will make the market dance.
Earnings: MSFT could be a trend setter - in either direction. I wouldn’t be caught holding a position into those earnings, but just wait to see what they say. It’s likely to be bullish event with the layoffs (good for profit), but any strong warnings could go a long ways. TSLA I don’t think matters for bears, will only help bulls.
The move on Friday for SPY/QQQ was impressive, BUT….it was a mechanical day (OpEx for January) and low volume Friday as always. It was a bull’s dream. It skipped right over some lines that are normally respected and at 396 (close), it may have to pay its respects to get over that. We could see a pullback to 393 before it charges on. If it doesn’t and just heads to 400 again, I won’t be surprised at all.
After we see if 396 is is easy to take down - or is tough resistance - then I’m on the bull train for Mon & Tuesday. The rest of the week, will be data dependent.
SPY 396 is also the 200MA
SPY range this week (guess): 393 - 405
Overall, I remain bearish for the year.
For the short-term however, we’re going into earnings season, there will be more layoffs announced which are good - for now - for companies. The unemployment numbers haven’t spiked yet and inflation is coming down — so the sentiment strongly favors the bulls.
I’m looking for a run to SPY 420-430 before it gets smacked down hard by rising unemployment and no chance of the Fed cutting rates until end of year at earliest. New SPY lows are coming

SPY levels: 390, 396, 400, 405
200 MA: 396.02

SPY had a weekly range of 386 to 399, closing near the highs of the week. The CPI report came in at expectations and the market held all of its gains that it frontloaded heading into the report.

The bulls have a nice narrative building here with inflation coming down, unemployment staying low, Fed slowing rate hikes, and consumer still somewhat strong. This is creating the goldilocks or soft landing narrative that is not too far fetch. The bulls of course take this theory one step further by saying all this means the Fed will pause or cut rates in a few months.

The bears argument is centered around a possible recession and notion that the Fed is not looking at cutting rate hikes anytime soon. If the market is strong, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, then why would the Fed pause here? IF anything they can keep pounding QT and lower the balance sheet without much fear of the market stumbling.

So, here we sit near the bear market line of rejection and the 200 Daily moving Average. Do we reject here, or breakthrough? There is an interesting battle happening here.

Current position: I’m holding nothing. I scalped 20 points out of NQ shortly after the open.
I’m looking to see what SPY 396 does.
If it goes back to 393 I’ll go long NQ.
If it jumps right over it to 397, I’ll go long NQ.
I’ll be out ahead of MSFT, then decide next move after that. PCE, same plan.

Screenshot 2023-01-22 at 19.33.15.png 290.25 KB

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 2 months ago

by: samosa

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Weekly Market Preview - January 16th, 2023

Last Week Recap -

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -

A lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Monday - Holiday
Tuesday - GS and MS earnings in premarket
Tuesday -NY Manufacturing Index at 8:30
Tuesday - Williams Speech at 3pm
Wednesday - UK/EU Inflation Reports at 2am
Wednesday - US PPI at 8:30am
Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am
Thursday - LaGarde Speech at 5:30am
Thursday - Housing Data at 8:30am
Thursday - NFLX earnings afterhours
Friday - Nothing major

My Prediction -

I am going to keep this short and simple. I believe we see a pullback to 393 at some point early this week, possibly 390. Bears will feel emboldened as that would be a rejection at the bear market trendline, and then we start to reverse course heading into the major tech earnings next week. I imagine a lot of Fed officials will maintain the hawkish rhetoric, but it will have little impact as the bulls know that 25 BPS hike for February is heavily favored to happen.

Ultimately, I think the rally after the pullback could get as high as 430. There is a lot of bullish sentiment out there, and I don't see anything slowing that down.

Yet another week to keep it light and let the major reports dictate the trend.

Current Positions and Plays -

I closed out my core puts early in the week for a nice gain. I did do a strangle on CPI and got walloped on it. I ended up scalping my way back green for the week.
I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being.

SPY Technicals -

SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour and 4 hour are close to overbought. Daily chart is neutral.
SPY is under its 50 MA but it is over the 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. It just went above the 100MA.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and it turns into support. 407 is the next Fib line higher.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. This seems to be the level that the market is comfortable buying at.

Percentages from the Highs

SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

$SPY - levels 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393 > 395 > 400
NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures.
This is not financial advice

0

SPY - SPDR S&P 500 2 months ago

by: Maverick

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Stock Market - Week Ahead: January 17, 2023

Monday: US Markets closed for MLK Jr Day.
Tuesday: NY Empire Index @ 830; FOMC Williams @ 3pm
Wednesday: UK CPI @ 2am; EU CPI @ 5am; US PPI + Retail @ 830; US Industrial Production @ 915; FOMC Harker @ 2pm.
Thursday: US Housing Data @ 830; Philly Fed Data @ 830; FOMC Williams @ 6:30pm
Friday: FOMC Harker @ 900; Fed Waller @ 1pm

Tuesday: GS + Banks premarket.
Wednesday: SCHW premarket.
Thursday: PG premarket, NFLX afterhours.

Last week: The run into CPI was impressive and held. Strong move from the bulls. I was doing good up until my CPI strangle got absolutely roasted because we didn’t move at all (worst case scenario). It was a losing week for me, but it’s on the back of a few week hot streak.
SPY right at the sloping line of resistance of 400. It’s riding above its 200MA now.
QQQ getting close to its sloping line of resistance of 285. It’s below its 200MA.
DIA/Dow is not far from an all-time high - mind blowing, really.
Both of these lines, everybody is watching because it’s where the rejections have been happening for a year now. Will it hold true once more?
I think so - but there’s real risk to them breaking out above them and going nuts. I’m trying to keep it light and wait for confirmation - in either direction. Right now, it’s gambling at these levels to be on either side.
VIX is at almost 18. Are we going to 15?
DXY is under 102 (we were at 115 top in September). I think it’s going to find a lot of support at 100-101 that would be tough to push through.
HOWEVER….We’re going into earnings season. We’ve got layoffs piling up in tech, banks preparing for loan delinquencies, some warnings being sounded, and once again the fate of the market is probably on Apple.
Unemployment + consumer spending remain the key numbers for me. The upward move in consumer credit and downward move in savings should be a note of caution.
CPI is no longer important - it’s just going to keep going down for now, we know this.
Is the Fed going to cut? I don’t see why on earth they would right now - or even this year. People are saying they’ve gone too far. How so? CPI is coming down, the market is trying to push through 400 on 60 year low unemployment, consumer spending that won’t seem to back down, and earnings that seem OK so far. Where’s the pain? This is the sweetheart scenario for the Fed — plus it lets them keep hitting it with QT and ensure inflation doesn’t come back. A pause - sure - that will happen in a few meetings, but not cuts. Unless something major breaks.
After being in a chop box since mid-December, we finally ripped up starting Jan 6. January is typically a strong month with new capital inflows, renewed optimism, all that. We’re currently in a 20 point SPY rally, which was inevitable.
I remain bearish overall, though - we haven’t seen the bottom yet. I think we’ll see SPX 3200-3300 this year as the bottom. However, I am just as fine trading these rallies, but keeping it light and rarely holding overnight.
The sentiment - right or wrong - is definitely to the upside for now. Be careful standing in front of the train when bulls are in charge.
SPY range this week (guess): 390 - 402

SPY levels: 390, 396, 400, 405
200 MA: 397.25